A majority of Latinos (54%) believe that the economic downturn that began in 2007 has been harder on them than on other groups in America.

Large shares report that they or someone in their household has been out of work in the past year (59%); that their personal finances are in “only fair” or “poor” shape (75%); that they canceled or delayed a major purchase in the past year (49%); or that they are underwater on their mortgage (28% of Latino homeowners).

The findings are drawn from a new telephone survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,220 Hispanic adults conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center. For a full description of the survey methodology, see Appendix C.

Latinos, who make up 16% of the population of the United States, have long trailed other Americans on most measures of economic well-being, but analyses of recent government trend data indicate that the gaps have widened since 2005, a period that encompasses the housing market crash and the Great Recession. For example:

• Household wealth: From 2005 to 2009, median household wealth (all assets minus all debt) among Latinos fell by 66%, compared with a drop of 53% among blacks and 16% among whites (Kochhar, Fry and Taylor, 2011).
• Unemployment: According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate among Latinos in December 2011 was 11.0%, up from 6.3% at the start of the Great Recession in December 2007. Over the same period, the national unemployment rate increased from 5.0% to 8.5%.
• Poverty: Between 2006 and 2010, the poverty rate among Hispanics increased nearly six percentage points—more than any other group—from 20.6% to 26.6%. By contrast, poverty rates among whites increased from 8.2% to 9.9%. And among blacks,¹ poverty rates increased from 24.3% to 27.4% (DeNavas-Walt, Proctor and Smith, 2011).

The new Pew Hispanic survey finds that most Latinos are broadly aware of these trends. Fully 54% say Hispanics have been hurt more than other groups by the economic downturn of the past four years, while just 5% say they have been hurt less. Some 38% say Hispanics have been affected about as much as other groups.

In their responses to a more detailed battery of questions, Latinos are more downbeat than the general public about various aspects of their economic lives. For example:

• Personal finances: Just 24% of Latinos rate their personal finance as excellent or good, compared with 38% of the general public.²
• Unemployment: Some 59% of Latinos say someone in their household has been out of work and looking for a job in the past year, compared with 51% of the general public.³
• Homeownership: Some 28% of Latino homeowners say they owe more on their home than they could sell it for today, compared with just 14% of homeowners in the general public.⁴

Despite these downbeat assessments about their current economic circumstances, Latinos are more upbeat than others about the prospect for better days ahead—both for themselves and their families in the short term and for their children over the long haul.

Fully two-thirds (67%) of Latinos say they expect their financial situation to improve over the next year, compared with 58% of the general population who say the same. Also, two-thirds (66%) of Latinos say they expect their children to eventually enjoy a standard of living that is better than theirs is now. By contrast, just 48% of the general public says the same.

The Latino population, at 50 million strong, is the largest minority group in the country. Some 52% of Latino adults are immigrants, and 48% were born in the United States. As is often the case, the new survey finds significant differences in the attitudes and experiences reported by these two groups.

In general, immigrants are more downbeat. For example, 62% of Latino immigrants say Latinos have been more hurt by the bad economy than other groups, compared with 45% of the native born who say the same. Just 16% of immigrants say their economic situation is “excellent” or “good,” compared with 32% of the native born. And 63% of immigrants say they expect their financial situation and that of their family to improve in the coming year, compared with 71% of the native born.

Immigrants, however, are more likely than the native born to say their children will eventually have a higher standard of living than theirs is now—72% versus 59%.

The additional data used in the alternative measure include medical expenses, tax credits, non-cash government benefits (such as food stamps, housing subsidies and school lunch programs) and cost-of-living adjustments for different geographic areas. The alternative measure is not intended to replace the official poverty measure, at least for now. For the foreseeable future, the Census Bureau will report two sets of numbers.

Compared with the official measure, SPM figures released by the Census Bureau show a higher national poverty rate for 2010, 16.0%, compared with the official poverty rate of 15.2% (Short, 2011).¹ The number of poor people in 2010 was 49.1 million using the alternative measure, compared with 46.6 million using the official measure. Using the SPM also resulted in higher poverty rates for some groups and lower poverty rates for others, when compared with the official measure.

Among the nation’s largest racial and ethnic groups, poverty rates using the alternative measure are higher than official poverty rates for Hispanics, whites² and Asians, but are lower for blacks. For Hispanics, the SPM poverty rate (28.2%) was 1.5 percentage points higher than the official poverty rate of 26.7%. For whites, the SPM poverty rate was 11.1% while the official poverty rate was 10.0%. For Asians, the SPM poverty rate was 16.7% versus the official poverty rate of 12.1%. By contrast, the SPM poverty rate for blacks, 25.4% in 2010, was 2.1 percentage points lower than the official poverty rate of 27.5%.

The Census Bureau report on the alternative poverty measure did not explain why poverty rates for race groups and Hispanics change under the alternative measure.³

When the alternative measure is used, a greater share of Hispanics in 2010 lived in poverty than any other group. By contrast, when using the official poverty rate, a greater share of blacks in 2010 lived in poverty than Hispanics or any other group. Even so, no matter which measure is used, Hispanics make up nearly three-in-ten of the nation’s poor—28.6% under the official poverty measure and 28.7% under the SPM.

The nation’s youngest and oldest age groups also show notable differences in their poverty rates depending on whether the official measure or the SPM is used. For children younger than 18 in 2010, the SPM poverty rate was lower than the official poverty rate—18.2% versus 22.5%.⁴ For the elderly, by contrast, the SPM poverty rate was higher than the official poverty rate—15.9% versus 9.0%. One explanation of the difference for children is that the SPM, but not the official measure, accounts for the in-kind benefits of government programs that target families with children, according to the Census Bureau. One explanation of the higher poverty rates for the elderly shown in the SPM, according to the bureau’s analysis, is that the alternative measure incorporates out-of-pocket spending on health care costs.

The share of people born in the U.S. who are poor did not change significantly using the SPM in 2010, compared with the official measure, but the poverty rate for immigrants was higher—25.5% versus 20.0%. For immigrants who are not U.S. citizens, the SPM poverty rate was 32.4% in 2010, while the official poverty rate was 26.7%. For naturalized citizens, the SPM poverty rate was 16.8% in 2010, compared with the official poverty rate of 11.4%.

Because the SPM accounts for cost-of-living differences across geographic areas, it produced different results from the official rates for cities, suburbs and non-metropolitan areas. The SPM poverty rate for residents outside of metropolitan areas was lower than the official poverty rate—12.8% versus 16.6%. By contrast, among those who live in metropolitan areas (cities and suburbs), the SPM poverty rate was higher than the official poverty rate—16.6% versus 15.0%.

The SPM, which was developed by the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics⁵, will not replace the official measure of poverty that has been used since the 1960s. The federal government’s official poverty measure defines thresholds based on the cost of a basket of food, adjusted for householder age, family size and composition. These costs are compared with before-tax cash income (including Social Security payments and cash welfare grants) to determine poverty status.

The alternative poverty measure, by contrast, starts with the cost of a basket of food, clothing, shelter and utilities, and adjusts it based on a wider range of family types and housing costs in different areas. The SPM also accounts for a larger range of financial resources, adding the value of non-cash benefits such as food stamps and subsidies for school lunches, housing costs and energy bills, while subtracting expenses such as taxes, child care costs and out-of-pocket spending for medical bills.

The Pew Research report provides the first look at how the Great Recession impacted household wealth. It finds that plummeting house values were the principal cause of the erosion in wealth among all groups. However, because Hispanics derived nearly two-thirds of their net worth in 2005 from home equity and a disproportionate share reside in states that were in the vanguard of the housing meltdown, Hispanics were hit hardest by the housing market downturn.

The Pew Research analysis also finds that the median wealth of white households is 18 times that of Hispanic households and 20 times that of black households. These lopsided wealth ratios are the largest in the quarter century since the government first published such data, and roughly twice the size of the ratios that had prevailed between these three groups for the two decades prior to the Great Recession.

These findings are based on a Pew Research Center analysis of newly-available data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), an economic questionnaire distributed periodically to tens of thousands of households by the U.S. Census Bureau. It is considered the most comprehensive source of data about household wealth in the United States by race and ethnicity.

Among the report’s other key findings:

• About a third of Hispanic (31%) and black (35%) households had zero or negative net worth in 2009, compared with 15% of white households. In 2005, the comparable shares had been 23% for Hispanics, 29% for blacks and 11% for whites.
• About a quarter of all Hispanic (24%) and black (24%) households in 2009 had no assets other than a vehicle, compared with just 6% of white households. These percentages are little changed from 2005.
• During the period under study, wealth disparities also increased within the Hispanic community. The top 10% of Hispanic households saw their share of all Hispanic household wealth rise from 56% in 2005 to 72% in 2009.

Like the U.S. population as a whole, Latinos are feeling the sting of the economic downturn. Almost one-in-ten (9%) Latino homeowners say they missed a mortgage payment or were unable to make a full payment and 3% say they received a foreclosure notice in the past year, according to a new national survey of 1,540 Latino adults conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center. Moreover, more than six-in-ten (62%) Latino homeowners say there have been foreclosures in their neighborhood over the past year, and 36% say they are worried that their own home may go into foreclosure. This figure rises to 53% among foreign-born Latino homeowners.

The economic downturn has also had an impact on the amount of money Latino immigrants send to family members or others in their country of origin. Among Hispanic immigrants who sent these remittances in the last two years, more than seven-in-ten (71%) say they sent less in the past year than in the prior year. However, while the amount of money Hispanic immigrants say they sent abroad has declined, the share of Hispanic immigrants who say they remitted funds is unchanged from 2006. More than half (54%) of foreign-born Hispanics, and more than one-in-three (36%) Latinos, say they sent remittances in the past year. In 2006, 51% of the foreign-born, and 35% of all Latinos, said they sent remittances in the prior year.

Latinos make up 15 percent of the total U.S. population, and in many respects their downbeat assessment of the nation’s economy is similar to that of the general population. According to a recent survey from the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press (December 2008), almost six-in-ten (59%) say the U.S. economy is in poor condition, a belief held by 63% of Latinos. And similar shares of the general U.S. population and Latinos say that jobs are difficult to find where they live—73% versus 78%.

However, Latinos hold a more negative view of their own current personal financial situation than does the population as a whole. More than three-in-four (75%) Latinos, and 84% of foreign-born Latinos, say their current personal finances are in either fair or poor shape, while 61% of the general U.S. population says that. But Latinos are more optimistic than others about the future: 67% expect that their financial circumstances will improve over the next year; just 56% of the general population feels the same way.

As the economy has soured, many Latinos are adjusting their economic behaviors. More than seven-in-ten (71%) report that they have cut back spending on eating out. Two-thirds (67%) say they planned to curtail holiday spending. More than one-fourth (28%) report that they helped a family member or friend with a loan.

A majority of Latinos (57%) say they do not have a very good understanding of recent financial problems involving financial institutions and companies with ties to the housing market that have dominated the economic news in recent months. When asked who or what has contributed to these problems, a large majority of survey respondents (76%) point a finger of blame at individuals who took on too much debt. But most Latinos also blame the lending policies of banks and financial institutions (70%) and insufficient government regulation of financial institutions (67%).

This report is based on a bilingual telephone survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,540 Hispanics ages 18 and older. Interviews were conducted from November 11 through November 30, 2008. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For a full description of the survey methodology, see Appendix A. Key findings of this study include the following:

Housing

• Half of adult Latinos are homeowners. Of this group, nearly one-in-ten (9%) say they have missed a mortgage payment in the past year.
• Among Latino homeowners, 3% have received a foreclosure notice in the past year.
• More than one-third (36%) of Latino homeowners are worried that their home may go into foreclosure in the next year.
• More than six-in-ten (62%) Latino homeowners say there have been foreclosures in their neighborhood in the past year.
• Nearly one-in-ten (8%) Latino homeowners say they have had a home equity loan denied in the past year, and 8% say they have had a home refinance application denied.

Remittances

• Among Hispanic immigrants who sent remittances in the last two years, more than seven-in-ten (71%) say they sent less in the past year compared with the prior year.
• Among foreign-born Hispanics who say they sent less money abroad in the past year, 83% cite financial circumstances as the main reason.
• More than half (54%) of foreign-born Hispanics say they have sent remittances abroad in the past year; 17% of native-born Hispanics say they have done so.
• According to central bank reports, remittances to Mexico and Central America increased rapidly from 2000 to 2006. However, growth has tapered off for most countries in the past two years. More details from these sources are available in Appendix C of this report.

Economic Conditions, Jobs and the Credit Crisis

• More than six-in-ten Hispanics (63%) say economic conditions today are poor, a sentiment shared by 59% of the general public.
• Similar shares of the general U.S. population and Latinos say that jobs are difficult to find where they live—73% versus 78%.
• A majority of Hispanics (57%) say they do not understand the financial problems involving Wall Street investment banks or other companies with ties to the housing market.
• When asked about who is to blame for the current economic financial crisis, Hispanics cite individuals taking on too much debt (76%); lending policies of banks and financial institutions (70%); and the lack of adequate government regulation of financial institutions (67%).

Personal Financial Situation

• More than three-quarters of Hispanics say their personal finances are in fair (46%) or poor shape (30%).
• Hispanics are more likely than the general U.S. population to rate their personal financial situation as poor or fair—75% versus 61%.
• More than eight-in-ten (84%) foreign-born Hispanics report that their finances are in either fair or poor shape. Among the native born, 66% say as much.
• Two-thirds (67%) of Latinos expect their personal financial situation to improve in the coming year, compared with 56% of the general population.
• Nearly one-in-four (23%) Latinos report that they have more debt than they can afford, while 25% of the general population reports the same.
• Hispanics are more likely than the general population to report that they have no credit card or installment loan debt—28% versus 19%.

Economic Behaviors

• Almost half of Latinos (47%) say they delayed or canceled plans to buy a car or make some other major purchase in the past year.
• More than seven-in-ten (71%) Latinos say they have cut back spending on eating out as a result of the economic downturn.
• Two-thirds (67%) of Latinos say they planned to curtail holiday spending as a result of the economic downturn.
• More than one-quarter (28%) of Latinos report that as a result of the economic downturn, they helped a family member or friend with a loan in the past year.
• Nearly two-in-ten (17%) say they received a loan from a family member or a friend in the past year.

About this Report

The National Survey of Latinos 2008, Economics and Politics, focuses on Hispanic adults’ views of the state of the economy, their own personal finances and housing market conditions. It also asks about the sending of remittances in the past year and how Latinos have changed their economic behaviors in the economic downturn. The survey was conducted from November 11 through November 30, 2008, among a randomly selected, nationally representative sample of 1,540 Hispanic adults. The survey was conducted in both English and Spanish. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points.

A Note on Terminology

The terms “Latino” and “Hispanic” are used interchangeably in this report, as are the terms “foreign born” and “immigrant.”

The terms “general population” and “general public” are used interchangeably in this report to refer to the entire U.S. adult population, including Hispanics.

Latinos have distinct demographic and economic characteristics that give them a unique stake in the debate over the future of Social Security. First, they are younger on average than the remainder of the U.S. population, which means that, as a group, their future as Social Security contributors and beneficiaries will be different from the future of non-Hispanics. Second, Hispanic workers tend to hold lower-paying jobs than the average U.S. worker and are less likely to have an employment-based pension. At all ages of adulthood Hispanics have lower average incomes and have accumulated less wealth than their white counterparts, and Hispanics currently over the age of 65 rely very heavily on Social Security retirement benefits as a source of income. For all these reasons, the nature, extent and timing of any changes to Social Security would have specific and distinct consequences for the Hispanic population.¹

In addition to examining these demographic and economic characteristics, this report presents the findings of a new national public opinion survey which found that about half of all Latinos favor a plan of the sort proposed by President George W. Bush, a plan that would allow wage earners to put some of their Social Security taxes in investment accounts. Conducted from February 15 to March 2, 2005, among a nationally representative sample of 1,001 Hispanic adults, the Pew Hispanic Center survey found that 49 percent think the proposal is a good idea while 38 percent say it is a bad idea. The survey also found that Latinos strongly favor measures that would limit benefits for the wealthy or increase Social Security taxes on them and oppose measures that would reduce benefits or eligibility for most retirees.

The major findings presented in this report include:

• Because of their relative youth, Latinos would be disproportionately affected by any changes to Social Security that leave benefits untouched for today’s older workers and current retirees but impose a new structure on younger people. More than 25 percent of the white population was born before 1950, but only 10 percent of Hispanics. Since President Bush’s proposed changes are “back-loaded,” affecting younger persons but leaving the system unchanged for those age 55 or older, a greater share of Hispanics than whites would find themselves directly affected.
• The transition to a retirement system that includes personal investment accounts as proposed by President Bush might be more challenging for Hispanic workers than for the working population at large. Not only are their earnings lower than average, young Hispanics have much less experience owning and managing long-term financial assets. For example, among household heads ages 35 to 44, 66 percent of whites own stocks, bonds or other long-term financial assets, compared with less than 28 percent of Hispanics.
• Among persons age 65 or over, Hispanics are less likely than others to receive Social Security benefits, and the average amount of Social Security benefits they do receive is lower as well.
• Hispanics age 65 or over are more dependent on Social Security than whites in the same age bracket because they have few other sources of retirement income.
• Current indicators suggest that Social Security is likely to continue to be a key source of income for older Hispanics in the future. Hispanic workers are the least likely of the principal racial and ethnic groups to participate in an employment-based retirement plan or own any long-term financial assets.
• The role that Hispanics play as contributors to Social Security will increase substantially in the next several decades. While the white labor force is projected to fall from 100 million in 2005 to about 94 million in 2050, the Hispanic labor force is projected to more than double, increasing from 19 million in 2005 to about 46 million in 2050. While fewer white workers will be contributing, many more Hispanics will be paying Social Security taxes by the middle of the century.
• In a national opinion survey by the Pew Hispanic Center, 49 percent of Hispanics said they thought a plan for individual investment accounts of the sort proposed by President Bush was a good idea while 38 percent said it was a bad idea and 12 percent said they did not know.
• Hispanics are almost evenly divided in their views of the condition of the Social Security system, with 47 percent saying it was in crisis or had major problems and 43 percent saying it had minor problems or no problems at all.

This report is broken into four sections. First, it reviews the current and future demographic characteristics of the Latino and white population in the United States, and shows how differences in these characteristics mean that Latinos and whites would be affected in different ways by the changes in Social Security proposed by President Bush. Next, the report analyzes how older Hispanics are faring under the current Social Security system. It then shows how wealth accumulation and levels of participation in pension plans by Hispanics are likely to shape their dependence on Social Security in the future.² Finally, the report presents the findings of a national survey of Latino attitudes toward proposed changes in the Social Security system.

Hispanic households have less than ten cents for every dollar in wealth owned by White households.^* This situation is worse than just a few years ago as the net worth of Hispanics was higher in the years leading into the 2001 recession. The recession eroded over one-quarter of the value of Hispanic wealth between 1999 and 2001. Latinos recouped some of that loss in the following year but ended 2002 with less wealth than they had in 1999. A similar picture emerges for Black households in recent years. The differences are that the net worth of Blacks is even less than that of Hispanic households and that it fell by more from 1999 to 2002. At the same time, the wealth of White households continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace than before the recession.

A Pew Hispanic Center analysis of data from the Census Bureau finds that the 2001 recession and the jobless recovery that followed were much harder on the net worth of minority households. Large segments of Hispanic and Black households are extremely vulnerable to economic downturns since over one-quarter of them have zero or negative net worth. Also, more than one out of four Hispanic and Black households owns no assets other than a car or unsecured debt. Most Hispanics and Blacks fall into the lowest category of wealth and the size of their middle-class is relatively small in itself and in comparison to Whites. One result of this is that the wealthiest 25 percent of households own over 90 percent of the total wealth in the Hispanic and Black communities. But even the wealthiest five percent of Hispanic households have a net worth that is less than one-half of the net worth of comparably placed White households.

The wealth gap between White households on the one hand and Hispanic and Black households on the other is much higher than the difference in income across these groups. Even though the median income of Latino and Black households is two-thirds as high as that of White households their wealth is only one-tenth as much. The reasons for this disparity include the facts that minorities have more limited access to financial markets and face greater barriers to homeownership. The ownership of a home bears a strong relationship with the net worth of a household. Homeowners own more of other assets and have a huge advantage in net worth over renters and other households. Hispanic homeowners, in fact, have a net worth that is half as much as the wealth of non-Hispanic homeowners. But non-Hispanic households are much more likely to own homes and that creates an even bigger gulf in wealth across the two groups.

Compared to Whites, Hispanics are also relatively young, not as highly educated, concentrated in high cost regions, such as New York and California, where homeownership can be less attainable, and are much more likely to be immigrants. All of these factors contribute to lower levels of wealth but are also self-correcting to some extent. The wealth gap should shrink as the Latino population ages and acquires greater education, especially college degrees. The Hispanic population is also starting to penetrate into new settlement areas, such as, Raleigh, Omaha and Nashville, with lower costs of living than the traditional areas of concentration, and this trend may help more Latino households become homeowners. As immigrants assimilate into labor and financial markets, their income and wealth rises naturally. Although the process of assimilation is not complete in the sense that it leads to wealth parity, it does eliminate much of the initial wealth gap between immigrants and native-born households.

The data from the Census Bureau enable the estimation of wealth maintained within the borders of the U.S. only. But, many immigrants, and especially Hispanics, display a strong propensity to send remittances to their source countries. Indeed, for many migrants the ability to support family members through remittances is an important motive for coming to the United States. Remittance flows to Latin American and Caribbean countries are presently estimated at more than $30 billion per year. That computes to over $2,500 per year for each Hispanic household in the U.S. If that sum were saved and invested within the U.S. it would have a significant impact on the measured wealth of Hispanic households, even if it were not nearly enough to close the gap between them and non-Hispanic households.

Major findings of this report include:

• The median net worth of Hispanic households in 2002 was $7,932. This was only nine percent of $88,651, the median wealth of White households at the same time. The net worth of Black households was only $5,988.
• Between 1999 and 2001, the net worth of Hispanic and Black households fell by 27 percent each. The net worth of White households increased by 2 percent.
• Twenty-six percent of Hispanic, 32 percent of Black and 13 percent of White households had zero or negative net worth in 2002. These proportions are essentially unchanged since 1996.
• Fifty-five to 60 percent of Hispanic and Black households had wealth less than one-fourth the national median level of wealth between 1996 and 2002. Fewer than 40 percent have middle-class levels of wealth and this proportion has not changed since 1996. Nearly 75 percent of White households have middle-class or higher levels of wealth.
• The wealthiest 25 percent of Hispanic and Black households own 93 percent of the total wealth of each group. Among White households, the top 25 percent own 79 percent of total wealth.
• The percentage of White households who owned homes in 2002 was 74.3 percent. The homeownership rates for Hispanic and Black households were 47.3 percent and 47.7 percent respectively.
• Financial market participation for Hispanic and Black households is well below the norm for White households. More than 25 percent of Latino and Black households, and only 6 percent of White households, own no assets other than a vehicle or unsecured liabilities.
• Home equity is a key component of household wealth and accounts for two-thirds of the mean net worth of Hispanic and Black households. The strength of the housing market in the recent economic slowdown eased the erosion in wealth of households which can be traced to the loss in value of financial assets.
• The median net worth of renters is only one percent of the level of net worth of homeowners.
• The net worth of immigrant households is only 37 percent of the net worth of native born households. Immigrants tend to be younger and less educated and their incomes are below average. Many are also in the early stages of assimilation.
• Hispanic immigrants from Central American and Caribbean countries had a net worth of only $2,508 in 2002. Cuban immigrants led the way for first-generation Hispanics with a net worth of $39,787. Mexican immigrants are in the middle with a net worth of $7,602 in 2002.
• Immigrants, Hispanic and non-Hispanic, show initial signs of rapid assimilation into homeownership, but it takes about 20 years for the homeownership rate among immigrants to equal the rate among native-born households of the same ethnicity.

Other major findings:
• The heaviest job losses for Latinos so far are concentrated in manufacturing and the retail trade, which together account for 40 percent of all Hispanic unemployment. The second generation, Latinos of Mexican origins and women have been hardest hit overall.
• Hispanic unemployment rates are high in the hospitality industry, as well as in transportation, sectors hard hit by the terrorist actions of 9/11. However, only a small portion of the Latino workforce is employed in these industries.
• California and New York, home to about half of all Hispanic workers, have Latino unemployment rates that are a full percentage point higher than the Latino rate nationally. Job losses for Latinos in New York City could reach as high as 15 percent by the end of 2002.
• Using the average of the Blue Chip Indicators of 50 leading econometric forecasts, Hispanic unemployment nationally is projected to hit 8.5 percent in the second quarter of 2002 before leveling off. It will begin to fall again in the fourth quarter of 2002 but will not recover
its pre-recession levels until 2004. Under less optimistic scenarios, Hispanic unemployment could peak at approximately 10 percent in 2003. That would mean some 1.5 million Latinos out of work a year from now compared with 927,000 a year ago.
• Despite considerable economic gains in the late 1990s, the bulk of the Latino population has few resources to weather the recession. On average, household savings and other assets are minimal.
• Access to public safety-net programs such as unemployment insurance and food stamps are limited by labor conditions and eligibility requirements. Out of 1.26 million unemployed Latinos in December 2001, only 40 percent are likely to be receiving UI benefits, leaving some
756,000 in the cold.