The nation’s 53 million Hispanics comprise 17% of the total U.S. population but just 10% of all voters this year, according to the national exit poll. To borrow a boxing metaphor, they still “punch below their weight.”

However, their share of the electorate will rise quickly for several reasons. The most important is that Hispanics are by far the nation’s youngest ethnic group. Their median age is 27 years—and just 18 years among native-born Hispanics—compared with 42 years for that of white non-Hispanics. In the coming decades, their share of the age-eligible electorate will rise markedly through generational replacement alone.

According to Pew Hispanic Center projections, Hispanics will account for 40% of the growth in the eligible electorate in the U.S. between now and 2030, at which time 40 million Hispanics will be eligible to vote, up from 23.7 million now.²

Moreover, if Hispanics’ relatively low voter participation rates and naturalization rates were to increase to the levels of other groups, the number of votes that Hispanics actually cast in future elections could double within two decades.

If the national exit poll’s estimate proves correct that 10% of all voters this year were Hispanic, it would mean that as many as 12.5 million Hispanics cast ballots. But perhaps a more illuminating way to analyze the distinctive characteristics of the Hispanic electorate—current and future—is to parse the more than 40 million Hispanics in the United States who did not vote or were not eligible to vote in 2012. That universe can be broken down as follows:

• 11.2 million are adults who were eligible to vote but chose not to. The estimated 44% to 53% turnout rate of eligible Hispanic voters in 2012 is in the same range as the 50% who turned out in 2008. But it still likely lags well below the turnout rate of whites and blacks this year.³
• 5.4 million are adult legal permanent residents (LPRs) who could not vote because they have not yet become naturalized U.S. citizens. The naturalization rate among legal immigrants from Latin America and the Caribbean trails that of other legal immigrants by a sizable margin—49% versus 72%, according to a Pew Hispanic analysis of the 2011 March Current Population Survey (CPS). The new Pew Hispanic survey finds that a major reason Hispanic immigrants naturalize is to gain civil and legal rights, including the right to vote. The flexing of electoral muscle by Hispanic voters this year conceivably could encourage more legal immigrants to become naturalized citizens.
• 7.1 million are adult unauthorized immigrants and would become eligible to vote only if Congress were to pass a law creating a pathway to citizenship for them. Judging by the immediate post-election comments of leading Democratic and Republican lawmakers, the long-dormant prospects for passage of such legislation appear to have been revived by Latinos’ strong showing at the polls.
• 17.6 million are under the age of 18 and thus too young to vote—for now. That vast majority (93%) of Latino youths are U.S-born citizens and thus will automatically become eligible to vote once they turn 18. Today, some 800,000 Latinos turn 18 each year; by 2030, this number could grow to 1 million per year, adding a potential electorate of more than 16 million new Latino voters to the rolls by 2030.

Thus, generational replacement alone will push the age- and citizen-eligible Latino electorate to about 40 million within two decades. If the turnout rate of this electorate over time converges with that of whites and blacks in recent elections (66% and 65%, respectively, in 2008), that would mean twice as many Latino voters could be casting ballots in 2032 as did in 2012.

This turnout could rise even more if naturalization rates among the 5.4 million adult Hispanic legal permanent residents were to increase over time—and/or if Congress were to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill that creates a pathway to citizenship for the more than 7 million unauthorized Hispanic immigrants already living in the U.S.

The Pew Hispanic Center survey finds that more than nine-in-ten (93%) Hispanic immigrants who have not yet naturalized say they would if they could. Of those who haven’t, many cite administrative costs and barriers, a lack of English proficiency and a lack of initiative. For example, according to the survey, only 30% of Hispanic immigrants who are LPRs say they speak English “pretty well” or “very well.”

In addition to all these factors, there is the as-yet-unknowable size and impact of future immigration. About 24 million Hispanic immigrants have come to U.S. in the past four decades—in absolute numbers, the largest concentrated wave of arrivals among any ethnic or racial group in U.S. history. Some 45% arrived in the U.S. legally, and 55% arrived illegally.⁴

Assuming Hispanic immigration continues into the future —even at the significantly reduced levels of recent years—the Hispanic electorate will expand beyond the numbers dictated by the growth among Hispanics already living in the U.S. And because immigrants tend to have more children than the native born, the demographic ripple effect of future immigration on the makeup of the electorate will be felt for generations.

In 2008, the Pew Research Center projected that the Hispanic share of the total U.S. population would be 29% by 2050 (Passel and Cohn, 2008). Since that projection was made, the annual level of Hispanic immigration has declined sharply (Passel, Cohn and Gonzalez-Barrera, 2012). Because of this decline, the share of Hispanics in 2050 now appears unlikely to reach 29%. However, the 2008 projection also included a “low immigration scenario” that showed the Hispanic share of the U.S. population would be 26% by mid-century (Passel and Cohn, 2008)—still much higher than today’s 17%.

Who Naturalizes and Who Doesn’t

A record 15.5 million legal immigrants were naturalized U.S. citizens in 2011, according to a Pew Hispanic Center analysis of Census Bureau data. In addition, the share of the nation’s legal immigrants who have become U.S. citizens has reached its highest level in three decades—56%. However, naturalization rates among legal immigrants from Latin America and the Caribbean (49%), especially Mexican legal immigrants (36%), remain below those of other immigrants (72%).

In the new Pew Hispanic Center survey, when asked in an open-ended question why they decided to naturalize, almost one-in-five (18%) naturalized Hispanic immigrants said that acquiring civil and legal rights—including the right to vote—was the main reason. This response was closely followed by an interest in having access to the benefits and opportunities derived from U.S. citizenship (16%) and family-related reasons (15%). Other reasons included viewing the U.S. as home (12%) and wanting to become American (6%).

The Pew Hispanic survey also explored the reasons Hispanic immigrants who are legal permanent residents haven’t yet tried to become citizens. According to the survey, when asked in an open-ended question why they had not naturalized thus far, 45% identified either personal barriers (26%), such as a lack of English proficiency, or administrative barriers (18%), such as the financial cost of naturalization.

About this Report

This report explores the growing size of the Hispanic electorate and the reasons Hispanic immigrants give for naturalizing to become a U.S. citizen—and for not naturalizing.

The report uses several data sources. Latino vote shares are based on the National Election Pool national exit poll as reported on November 6, 2012, by CNN’s Election 2012 website. Data on Latino immigrants’ views of naturalization are based on the Pew Hispanic Center’s 2012 National Survey of Latinos (NSL). The NSL survey was conducted from September 7 through October 4, 2012, in all 50 states and the District of Columbia among a randomly selected, nationally representative sample of 1,765 Latino adults, 899 of whom were foreign born. The survey was conducted in both English and Spanish on cellular as well as landline telephones. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. The margin of error for the foreign-born sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Interviews were conducted for the Pew Hispanic Center by Social Science Research Solutions (SSRS).

For data on the legal status of immigrants, Pew Hispanic Center estimates use data mainly from the Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly survey of about 55,000 households conducted jointly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau. It is best known as the source for monthly unemployment statistics. Each March, the CPS sample size and questionnaire are expanded to produce additional data on the foreign-born population and other topics. The Pew Hispanic Center estimates make adjustments to the government data to compensate for undercounting of some groups, and therefore its population totals differ somewhat from the ones the government uses. Estimates of the number of immigrants by legal status for any given year are based on a March reference date. For more details, see Passel and Cohn (2010).

This report was written by Director Paul Taylor, Research Associate Ana Gonzalez-Barrera, Senior Demographer Jeffrey S. Passel and Associate Director Mark Hugo Lopez. Ana Gonzalez-Barrera took the lead in developing the survey questionnaire’s naturalization section. Passel and D’Vera Cohn provided comments on earlier drafts of the report. The authors also thank Scott Keeter, Leah Christian, Cohn, Richard Fry, Cary Funk, Rakesh Kochhar, Rich Morin, Seth Motel, Kim Parker, Passel, Eileen Patten and Antonio Rodriguez for guidance on the development of the survey instrument. Motel provided excellent research assistance. Fry, Morin and Patten number-checked the report text and topline. Marcia Kramer was the copy editor.

A Note on Terminology

The terms “Latino” and “Hispanic” are used interchangeably in this report.

“Foreign born” refers to persons born outside of the United States, Puerto Rico or other U.S. territories to parents neither of whom was a U.S. citizen.

The following terms are used to describe immigrants and their status in the U.S. In some cases, they differ from official government definitions because of limitations in the available survey data.

Legal permanent resident, legal permanent resident alien, legal immigrant, authorized migrant: A citizen of another country who has been granted a visa that allows work and permanent residence in the U.S. For the analyses in this report, legal permanent residents include persons admitted as refugees or granted asylum.

Naturalized citizen: Legal permanent resident who has fulfilled the length of stay and other requirements to become a U.S. citizen and who has taken the oath of citizenship.

Unauthorized migrant: Citizen of another country who lives in the U.S. without a currently valid visa.

Eligible immigrant: In this report, a legal permanent resident who meets the length of stay qualifications to file a petition to become a citizen but has not yet naturalized.

Legal temporary migrant: A citizen of another country who has been granted a temporary visa that may or may not allow work and temporary residence in the U.S.

Obama’s national vote share among Hispanic voters is the highest seen by a Democratic candidate since 1996, when President Bill Clinton won 72% of the Hispanic vote.

The Center’s analysis finds that Latinos made up 10% of the electorate, as indicated by the national exit poll, up from 9% in 2008 and 8% in 2004.² The analysis also shows that as a group, non-white voters made up 28% of the nation’s electorate, up from 26% in 2008.³

Battleground States

Hispanics made up a growing share of voters in three of the key battleground states in yesterday’s election—Florida, Nevada and Colorado.

Obama carried Florida’s Hispanic vote 60% to 39%, an improvement over his 57% to 42% showing in 2008. Also, Hispanics made up 17% of the Florida electorate this year, up from 14% in 2008.

The state’s growing non-Cuban population—especially growth in the Puerto Rican population in central Florida—contributed to the president’s improved showing among Hispanic voters. This year, according to the Florida exit poll, 34% of Hispanic voters were Cuban while 57% were non-Cuban. Among Cuban voters, the vote was split—49% supported Obama while 47% supported Romney. Among the state’s non-Cuban voters, Obama won 66% versus 34% for Romney.

In Colorado, Obama carried the Latino vote by a wide margin—75% to 23%. The president’s performance among Latino voters in Colorado was better than in 2008, when Obama won the Latino vote 61% to 38%. Hispanics made up 14% of Colorado voters this year, up from 13% in 2008.

In Nevada, Obama won the Hispanic vote 70% to 25%. However, the president’s Hispanic vote was down from the 76% share he won in 2008. Among voters in Nevada, the Hispanic share was 18%, up from 15% in 2008.

In other states, the president also carried large shares of the Hispanic vote. Among other battlegrounds, Obama won 68% of the Hispanic vote in North Carolina, 65% in Wisconsin, 64% in Virginia and 53% in Ohio.

Top Issues for Hispanic Voters in 2012

For Hispanic voters, according to the national exit poll, 60% identified the economy as the most important issue (of four listed) facing the country today, virtually the same as the share (59%) of the general electorate that identified the economy as the nation’s most important issue. On the other three issues asked about, for Hispanic voters, the economy was followed by health care (18%), the federal budget deficit (11%) and foreign policy (6%).

Throughout this election cycle, the issue of immigration has been an important issue for Hispanics. In the national exit poll, voters were asked about what should happen to unauthorized immigrants working in the U.S. According to the national exit poll, 77% of Hispanic voters said these immigrants should be offered a chance to apply for legal status while 18% said these immigrants should be deported. Among all voters, fewer than two-thirds (65%) said these immigrants should be offered a chance to apply for legal status while 28% say they should be deported.

Demographics of the Latino Vote

Among Latino voters, support for Obama was strong among all major demographic sub-groups. Yet some differences were evident. According to the national exit poll, Hispanic women supported Obama more than Hispanic males—76% versus 65%.

Latino youth, just as all youth nationwide, supported Obama over Romney, but did so by a wider margin—74% versus 23% for Latino youth compared with 60% versus 37% among all youth. Obama won other Latino age groups by nearly as large a margin.

Among Hispanic college graduates, 62% voted for Obama while 35% supported Romney. By contrast, 75% of Hispanics without a college degree voted for Obama while 24% voted for Romney.

Another gap was evident among Latino voters when viewed by income. Among Latino voters whose total family income is below $50,000, 82% voted for Obama while 17% voted for Romney. Among Latino voters with family incomes of $50,000 or more, 59% voted for Obama while 39% voted for Romney.

About this Report

Exit poll results for this report were obtained from CNN’s Election 2012 website and are based on National Election Pool national and state exit poll surveys of voters as reported on November 6, 2012. In addition to an analysis of the national Latino vote, 12 states were examined. These states are Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Acknowledgements

The authors thank Eileen Patten for excellent research assistance. Seth Motel checked numbers in the report.

A Note on Terminology

The terms “Latino” and “Hispanic” are used interchangeably in this report.

Obama’s current lead over Romney among Hispanics has barely budged throughout the 2012 campaign and is larger than in the 2008 election, when he received 67% of the Hispanic vote to 31% for Republican John McCain (Lopez, 2008).

The new survey also finds a sharp rise in the past year in the share of Latinos who identify the Democratic Party as the one that has more concern for Latinos. Some 61% say this now, up from 45% in 2011. Just 10% say this about the Republican Party, down from 12% in 2011.

The Latino electorate is growing in size and importance. Today some 23.7 million Hispanics are eligible to vote, an increase of more than 4 million since 2008. Hispanics now account for a record 11.0% of the nation’s eligible electorate, up from 9.5% in 2008 (Lopez, Motel and Patten, 2012).

With the turnout rate of eligible Latinos voters historically lagging behind that of other groups, the new survey finds that 77% of Latino registered voters say they are “absolutely certain” they will vote this year. By comparison, 89% of all registered voters say the same in a separate Pew Research Center survey (2012b) of the general public taken at the same time.

Likewise, 61% of Latino registered voters say they have thought “quite a lot” about the upcoming presidential election, compared with 70% of registered voters in the general public.

At the same time, however, fully two-thirds (67%) of Latino adults say they believe the Latino vote will have a “major impact” on determining who wins this year’s election.

Latinos and State Photo ID Laws

One recent development that could potentially have an impact on the Latino turnout rate is the passage of state laws that require voters to show photo identification in order to cast a ballot. This year 11 states—Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, New Hampshire, South Dakota and Tennessee—have such laws in effect.¹  Together, these states are home to 15% of all Latino eligible voters.²

According to the new survey, fully 97% of all Latino registered voters—as well as a nearly identical 95% of Latino registered voters in those 11 states—say they are confident they have the identification they will need to vote on Election Day.

The survey also finds broad support among Latino registered voters for voter photo ID laws; 71% favor them, nearly as high a share as among the general public (77%).

Top Issues among Latino Registered Voters

Education, jobs and the economy, and health care are the top issues for Hispanic registered voters. Some 55% of registered voters say the issue of education is extremely important to them, followed by 54% who cite jobs and the economy, and 50% who cite health care. These three top issues are the same as those cited by Hispanic registered voters in December 2011 (Lopez, Gonzalez-Barrera and Motel, 2011).

About a third (34%) of Hispanic registered voters say immigration is extremely important to them personally; similar shares say the same about the federal budget deficit (36%) and taxes (33%).

This report is based on a nationally representative bilingual telephone survey of 1,765 Latino adults, including 903 registered voters. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level; for registered voters, the margin of error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. The survey was largely conducted before the first presidential debate, which occurred on October 3, 2012. For a full description of the survey methodology, see Appendix B.

Among the report’s other findings:

The Presidential Horse Race and Party Affiliation

• In the nine so-called battleground states in the presidential election—Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin³—Obama holds a 65% to 23% lead over Romney among Latino registered voters. In the non-battleground states, Obama’s lead is 70% to 21%.
• Obama holds a 72% to 22% lead over Romney among Hispanic registered voters who say they are “absolutely certain they will vote” this year. Among Hispanic registered voters who say they may vote, Obama’s lead over Romney is smaller—66% to 20%.
• Across nearly all major demographic groups of Latino registered voters—by age, gender, educational attainment, language use and immigrant status—Obama holds a greater than 2-1 lead over Romney.
• Democrats hold a widening advantage over Republicans among Latino registered voters in party affiliation. Seven-in-ten (70%) Latino registered voters say they identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, while 22% say the same about the Republican Party. In 2008, this margin was 65% to 26% (Lopez and Minushkin, 2008).

Importance of the Latino Vote

• Two-thirds (67%) of adult Latinos say the Latino vote will have a major impact in determining who wins the 2012 presidential election.
• Foreign-born Hispanics are more likely than the native born to say the Latino vote will have a major impact on this year’s election—72% versus 62%.

Approval of Obama’s New Policy on Unauthorized Immigrant Youth

• Nearly nine-in-ten (89%) adult Latinos say they approve of President Obama’s recently announced policy that allows unauthorized immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as children to remain in the country and apply for temporary work permits if they meet certain conditions. Among Latino registered voters, 86% say they approve of the program.
• Three-in-ten (31%) Hispanic adults say they know someone who has applied for the new deferred action program. Among Hispanic registered voters, 26% say they know someone who has applied for the program.
• One-in-four (26%) Hispanic adults say they personally know someone who has been deported or detained by the federal government for immigration reasons in the past 12 months. Among Hispanic registered voters, 22% say the same.

Personal Finances and the State of the Nation

• About four-in-ten (42%) Hispanic registered voters say their personal finances are in “excellent” or “good” shape, up from 31% who said that in 2011. Among registered voters in the general public, some 48% rate their finances as excellent or good, up from 42% last year.
• Most Hispanics are optimistic about their financial futures. Seven-in-ten Hispanics (73%) and Hispanic registered voters (70%) say they expect their family’s financial situation will improve in the next year.
• Hispanic registered voters are more upbeat than the general public about the overall state of the nation. Some 45% say they are satisfied with the direction of the nation, compared with 28% of all registered voters. Both figures have risen in the past year.

About the Report

The 2012 National Survey of Latinos (NSL) focuses on Latinos views and attitudes about the 2012 presidential election. The survey was conducted from September 7 through October 4, 2012, in all 50 states and the District of Columbia among a randomly selected, nationally representative sample of 1,765 Latino adults, 903 of whom say they are registered to vote. The survey was conducted in both English and Spanish on cellular as well as landline telephones. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. The margin of error for the registered voter sample is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

Interviews were conducted for the Pew Hispanic Center by Social Science Research Solutions (SSRS).

This report was written by Associate Director Mark Hugo Lopez and Research Associate Ana Gonzalez-Barrera. Paul Taylor provided editorial guidance. The authors thank Paul Taylor, Scott Keeter, Leah Christian, D’Vera Cohn, Michael Dimock, Richard Fry, Cary Funk, Rakesh Kochhar, Luis Lugo, Jessica Martinez, Rich Morin, Seth Motel, Kim Parker, Jeffrey S. Passel, Eileen Patten, Antonio Rodriguez and Greg Smith for guidance on the development of the survey instrument. Taylor provided comments on earlier drafts of the report. Motel, Patten, Martinez and Parker number-checked the report text and topline. Marcia Kramer was the copy editor.

A Note on Terminology

The terms “Latino” and “Hispanic” are used interchangeably in this report.

References to other races and ethnicities are to the non-Hispanic components of those populations. “Asian” does not include Pacific Islanders.

The terms “unauthorized immigrants” and “illegal immigrants” are used interchangeably in this report, as are the terms “unauthorized immigration” and “illegal immigration.”

“Native born” refers to persons who are U.S. citizens at birth, including those born in the United States, Puerto Rico or other U.S. territories and those born abroad to parents at least one of whom was a U.S. citizen.

“Foreign born” refers to persons born outside of the United States, Puerto Rico or other U.S. territories to parents neither of whom was a U.S. citizen.

“Foreign-born U.S. citizens” refers to persons who indicate they are “foreign born” and U.S. citizens. The terms “foreign-born U.S. citizens” and “naturalized U.S. citizens” are used interchangeably in this report.

“Foreign-born legal residents” refers to persons who indicate they are foreign born and who say they have a green card or have been approved for one.

“Foreign born who are not legal residents and not U.S. citizens” refers to persons who indicate they are foreign born and who say they do not have a green card and have not been approved for one.

Language dominance is a composite measure based on self-described assessments of speaking and reading abilities. “Spanish-dominant” persons are more proficient in Spanish than in English, i.e., they speak and read Spanish “very well” or “pretty well” but rate their English-speaking and reading ability lower. “Bilingual” refers to persons who are proficient in both English and Spanish. “English-dominant” persons are more proficient in English than in Spanish.

“Eligible voters” refers to persons ages 18 and older who are U.S. citizens, regardless of whether they are registered to vote.

“Battleground states” were identified by the Pew Research Center using state ratings in September from The Cook Political Report, MSNBC, The New York Times, Real Clear Politics, Karl Rove, CNN, Pollster.com and The Washington Post. These states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.

“Photo ID states” are those classified by the National Conference of State Legislatures (2012) as requiring photo identification in order to vote. For the current presidential election, photo ID laws are in place in these states: Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, New Hampshire, South Dakota and Tennessee.

A record 23.7 million Latinos are eligible to vote in the 2012 presidential election, according to an analysis of Census Bureau data by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center. This is up by more than 4 million, or 22%, since 2008, when 19.5 million Latinos were eligible to vote.¹

Due to their ongoing  population growth, Latinos comprise a greater share of the nation’s eligible voters than they did just a few years ago—11.0% this year, up from 9.5% in 2008 and 8.2% in 2004 (Lopez and Taylor, 2009).

However, the turnout rate of eligible Latino voters has historically lagged that of whites and blacks by substantial margins. In 2008, for example, 50% of eligible Latino voters cast ballots, compared with 65% of blacks and 66% of whites (Lopez and Taylor, 2009).

Also, despite Latino population growth, the number of Latinos who said they are registered to vote fell by about 600,000 between 2008 and 2010, according to Census Bureau data. This was the only significant decline in the number of Latino registered voters in the past two decades.²

There is not yet any nationwide data on Latino voter registration levels so far in 2012. In the only four states that report such records by ethnicity—Alabama, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina—the 2012 registration levels of Hispanics have already surpassed the 2008 levels. However, these states are not necessarily representative of the nation as a whole; more so than most other states, they have experienced very rapid growth in their Hispanic population in recent years.

Latinos are the nation’s largest minority group. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2011 there were 51.9 million Latinos in the U.S., making up 16.7% of the nation’s population.

As the number of Latino eligible voters has grown, so too has the number of Latinos casting votes in presidential elections. In 2008, 9.7 million Latinos cast a vote—a record then, and up from 7.6 million in 2004, also a record year.³ In addition, Latinos represent a growing share of voters. In 2008, Hispanics made up 7.4% of all voters, up from 6.0% in 2004 (Lopez and Taylor, 2009).

Nonetheless, Hispanics are still a smaller part of the potential electorate than might be expected given their rapid population growth and share of the general population. For example, according to the Pew Hispanic analysis, more than 25 million blacks are eligible to vote in 2012 as are more than 152 million whites—both larger than the Hispanic electorate.

Part of the reason for this difference is that Hispanics are younger and less likely to hold citizenship than other groups. Overall, more than half (55%) of all Hispanics are not eligible to vote because they are under age 18 or are an adult that does not hold U.S. citizenship. By comparison, about one-in-five (21%) whites, less than one-third (31%) of blacks and 46% of Asians are ineligible to vote.

This report explores electoral participation trends among Hispanics in recent presidential election cycles. It also provides a snapshot of the geography and demography of the Hispanic vote in 2012, with a special focus on the so-called “battleground states.” Accompanying this report are state profiles of Latino eligible voters in 41 states and the District of Columbia, each based on data from the 2010 American Community Survey. Also accompanying this report is an interactive mapshowing key characteristics of Latino voters in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

About This Report

This report explores trends in Latino voter participation in U.S. presidential elections. It also examines the geographic distribution of Latino voters across the U.S.

The data for this report are derived from three main sources. The first is the November Voting and Registration Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS is a monthly survey of about 55,000 households conducted by the Census Bureau for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The CPS is representative of the non-institutionalized population of the U.S. It does not include data on the voting behavior of enlisted military personnel and those who are institutionalized. The November Voting and Registration Supplement of the CPS is one of the richest sources of information available about the characteristics of voters. It is conducted after Election Day and relies on survey respondent self-reports of voting and voter registration. In addition to the November Voting and Registration Supplement to the Current Population Survey, this report also uses the August 2012 Current Population Survey.

The second data source is the 2010 American Community Survey (1% IPUMS). The 2010 provides detailed geographic, demographic and economic characteristics for Latino and non-Latino eligible voters and is the main source for the state-level analysis of this report.

Voter registration data for Latino voters in the states of Alabama, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina are from voter registration statistics published by each state.

Accompanying this report are state profiles of Latino eligible voters in 41 states and the District of Columbia.⁴ Also accompanying this report is an interactive map showing key characteristics of Latino voters in the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

This report was written by Mark Hugo Lopez. Analysis for the report was provided by Seth Motel and Eileen Patten. Motel and Patten wrote the state fact sheet reports. Paul Taylor provided editorial guidance and comments. Jeffrey Passel and Rakesh Kochhar provided comments. Antonio Rodriguez provided research assistance. Eileen Patten number-checked the report. Bruce Drake was the copy editor.

A Note on Terminology

The terms “Latino” and “Hispanic” are used interchangeably in this report.

References to other races and ethnicities are to the non-Hispanic components of those populations. “Asian” does not include Pacific Islanders.

“Eligible voters” refers to persons ages 18 and older who are U.S. citizens.

For findings based on CPS data, “registered voters” refers to persons who self-report that they are registered to vote in the November Voting and Registration Supplement of the CPS.

For findings based on state voter registration data, “registered voters” refers to tallies of registered voters reported by state election officials.

“Voters” are those who say they voted in the Voting and Registration Supplement of the CPS.

“Voter turnout rate” is the share of eligible voters who say they voted.

“Battleground states” were identified by the Pew Research Center using state ratings in September from The Cook Political Report, MSNBC, The New York Times, Real Clear Politics, Karl Rove, CNN, Pollster.com and the Washington Post.

2012 State Fact Sheets: Key demographic information on Latino eligible voters
Report: A Record 24 Million Latinos Are Eligible to Vote; Turnout Has Lagged That of Other Groups

More than 6.6 million Latinos voted in last year’s election—a record for a midterm—according to an analysis of new Census Bureau data by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center. Latinos also were a larger share of the electorate in 2010 than in any previous midterm election, representing 6.9% of all voters, up from 5.8% in 2006.¹

Rapid population growth has helped fuel Latinos’ increasing electoral participation. According to the Census Bureau, 50.5 million Hispanics were counted by the 2010 Census, up from 35.3 million in 2000 (Passel, Cohn and Lopez, 2011). Over the same decade, the number of Latino eligible voters—adults who are U.S. citizens—also increased, from 13.2 million in 2000 to 21.3 million in 2010.

However, even though more Latinos than ever are participating in the nation’s elections, their representation among the electorate remains below their representation in the general population. In 2010, 16.3% of the nation’s population was Latino, but only 10.1% of eligible voters and fewer than 7% of voters were Latino.

This gap is driven by two demographic factors—youth and non-citizenship. More than one third of Latinos (34.9%) are younger than the voting age of 18, a share greater than that of any other group. And an additional 22.4% are of voting age, but are not U.S. citizens. As a result, the share of the Latino population eligible to vote is smaller than it is among any other group. Just 42.7% of the nation’s Latino population is eligible to vote, while more than three-in-four (77.7%) of whites², two-thirds of blacks (67.2%) and more than half of Asians (52.8%) are eligible to vote. Even so, the number of Latino eligible voters will continue to grow in the coming decades as a steady stream of U.S. born Latinos becomes eligible to vote by turning 18—more than 600,000 did so annually between 2006 and 2010.

Yet, even among eligible voters, Latino participation rates have lagged behind that of other groups in recent elections. In 2010, 31.2% of Latino eligible voters say they voted, while nearly half (48.6%) of white eligible voters and 44.0% of black eligible voters said the same. This gap in participation—17.4 percentage points between Latinos and whites—has persisted in recent midterm election years, though it is down from a record 19.3 percentage points in 2006. A similar gap in voter turnout rates between Latinos and whites exists in presidential election years as well (Lopez and Taylor, 2009).

Latino voter turnout rates lag other groups partly because of the large share of Latino eligible voters that are under 30. In 2010, 31.3% of Latino eligible voters were ages 18 to 29, while 19.2% of white, 25.6% of black and 20.7% of Asian eligible voters were under 30. Historically, young people have voted at lower rates than older eligible voters. And among young voters, Latinos have had some of the lowest voter participation rates—in 2010 just 17.6% of young Latino eligible voters voted (Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, 2011). In contrast, among Latino eligible voters ages 30 and older, the voter turnout rate was higher—37.4% in 2010. However, among older voters the gap in voter turnout rates between Latinos and whites—16.9 percentage points—is nearly as large as it is between all Latino eligible voters and all white eligible voters—17.4 percentage points.

The gap in voter participation between Latinos and others is also partly due to fast growth in the number of Latinos who do not vote but are eligible to do so. Between 2006 and 2010 the number of Latino voters increased by 18.8%, but the number of Latino non-voters increased more rapidly, by 25.0%.

Just as with other populations, differences in voter turnout rates exist among Latino eligible voters. In 2010, Latino college graduates had the highest voter turnout rate (50.3%) among Latino eligible voters, while young Latinos ages 18 to 29 had the lowest (17.6%). Differences in participation rates also exist by country of origin. Nearly half (49.3%) of Cuban-origin Latinos voted in 2010 compared with 29.6% of Puerto Rican-origin Latinos and 28.7% of Mexican-origin Latinos. Similarly, a greater share of naturalized foreign-born Latinos than native-born Latinos voted—36.6% versus 29.2%.

Terminology

• Voting Age Population: Persons ages 18 and older.
• Voting Eligible Population: Persons ages 18 and older who are U.S. citizens.
• Registered Voter Population: Persons who say they were registered to vote in the 2010 election.
• Voter Population or Voter Turnout: Persons who say they voted in the November 2010 election.
• Voter Turnout Rate: Share of the voting eligible population who say they voted.

Tuesday’s midterm elections were historic for Hispanics. For the first time ever, three Latino candidates—all of them Republicans—won top statewide offices. In New Mexico, voters elected the nation’s first Latina governor, Republican Susana Martinez. In Nevada, Republican Brian Sandoval won the governor’s race and became Nevada’s first Hispanic governor. And in Florida, Republican Marco Rubio won the U.S. Senate race.¹

Despite these big top-of-the-ticket wins for Republican Hispanic candidates, Democratic candidates won the Latino vote, usually by wide margins. For example, according to the national House exit poll,² 60% of Latino voters supported Democratic candidates in House races while 38% supported Republican candidates.

This majority support for Democratic candidates continues a pattern among Latino voters. In 2006, according to the national exit poll, 69% of Latinos voted for Democratic candidates in their Congressional district races, while 30% supported Republicans.³ In the 2008 presidential election, Latinos supported Democrat Barack Obama by a margin of more than two-to-one over Republican John McCain—67% versus 31% according to a Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the national exit poll (Lopez, 2008).

The candidacies of Republicans Rubio and Sandoval drew sharply different levels of support from Latino voters. In Florida, Rubio captured 55% of the Latino vote in his race for the Senate–identical to the share of the white vote he won (55%). In Nevada, however, Sandoval won a third (33%) of the Latino vote in his race for governor; he did much better among whites, winning 62% of the vote according to the state exit poll. No exit polls were done in New Mexico, so it is not possible to analyze the voting patterns among Latinos and other groups in Martinez’s victorious gubernatorial campaign.

According to the national House exit poll, Latinos represented the same share of all voters this year that they did in 2006—8%. Overall, more than 19 million Latinos were eligible to vote⁴ in this year’s midterm elections, more than in any previous election (Lopez, 2010). Latinos also represent a growing share of all eligible voters and substantial shares of eligible voters in many states. More than 9% of eligible voters nationwide are Latino, up from 8.6% in 2006 (Pew Hispanic Center, 2006).

With the exception of Florida, in states where exit polling data is available, Democratic candidates won the Latino vote, usually by wide margins. In California’s senate race, Democrat Barbara Boxer won 65% of the Latino vote while Republican Carly Fiorina won 29%. In California’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Jerry Brown won 64% of California’s Latino vote while Republican Meg Whitman won 31%. In Nevada, Latinos supported Democrat Harry Reid over Republican Sharron Angle by a greater than two-to-one margin—69% versus 30%. Latino voters in Arizona, Nevada and Texas similarly supported Democratic candidates over Republican candidates in Senate and gubernatorial races.

In Florida Hispanic voters gave greater support to Republican candidates than elsewhere. As noted above, in Florida’s Senate race, more than half (55%) of Hispanic voters supported Republican Rubio over Independent Charlie Crist (25%) and Democrat Kendrick Meek (20%). In Florida’s governor vote, 48% of Hispanic voters supported Democrat Alex Sink and half (50%) supported Republican Rick Scott, according to the state exit poll. The Hispanic vote in Florida has traditionally tilted more Republican than in other states, owing largely to the presence of the GOP-leaning Cuban-American community.

Just as in previous elections, Hispanics nationwide voted differently than white non-Hispanic voters. According to the national exit polls, white non-Hispanics supported Republican congressional candidates over Democratic candidates 60% to 37%. In 2006, half (51%) of white non-Hispanics voted for Republican candidates and 47% voted for Democratic candidates. In many state races, Republican candidates won the white non-Hispanic vote while Democratic candidates won the Latino vote.

This report contains an analysis of exit poll results for the Latino vote nationally in the U.S. House of Representatives races. It also contains an analysis of gubernatorial and Senate races in the states of Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada, and the gubernatorial race in Texas.

Reweighting of the 2010 National Election Pool’s National and State Exit Polls

The vote share results shown in this report reflect updates to the National Election Pool’s national and state exit polls as of Wednesday, December 30, 2010. The reweighting resulted in changes in the Republican vs. Democratic share of the Latino U.S. House vote nationally as well as in several statewide races.

About this Report

Exit poll results for this report were obtained from CNN’s Election 2010 website and are based on the Edison Research’s national and state exit poll surveys of voters as reported on December 30, 2010. In addition to an analysis of the national Latino vote, five states were examined. These states are Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada and Texas.

A Note on Terminology

The terms “Latino” and “Hispanic” are used interchangeably in this report.

The terms “whites,” and “blacks” are used to refer to the non-Hispanic components of their population.

Hispanics in Arizona’s Eligible Voter Population

• The Hispanic population in Arizona is the fifth-largest in the nation. Nearly 2 million Hispanics reside in Arizona, 4% of all Hispanics in the United States.
• The population in Arizona is 30% Hispanic, the fourth-highest Hispanic population share nationally.
• There are 766,000 eligible Hispanic voters in Arizona—the fifth-largest Hispanic eligible-voter population nationally. California ranks first with 5.4 million.
• Nearly two-in-ten (18%) of eligible voters in Arizona are Latinos, the fourth-largest Hispanic eligible voter population share nationally. New Mexico ranks first with 38%.
• Some 39% of Latinos in Arizona are eligible to vote, ranking Arizona 23rd nationwide in the share of the Hispanic population that is eligible to vote. In contrast, 79% of the state’s white population is eligible to vote.

Characteristics of Eligible Voters

• Age. One-third of Hispanic eligible voters in Arizona (32%) are ages 18 to 29, similar to the share of all Latino eligible voters nationwide (31%) in that age range. By contrast, only 22% of all Arizona eligible voters and 22% of all U.S. eligible voters are ages 18 to 29.
• Citizenship. Two-in-ten of Hispanic eligible voters in Arizona (18%) are naturalized U.S. citizens, compared with 7% of all Arizona eligible voters. Hispanic eligible voters in Arizona are more likely to be native-born citizens (82%) than are Hispanic eligible voters nationwide (74%).
• Educational Attainment. One-quarter of Latino eligible voters in Arizona (26%) have not completed high school, more than double the 12% of all Arizona eligible voters who have not completed high school.
• Homeownership. Two-thirds of Hispanic eligible voters in Arizona (66%) live in owner-occupied homes compared with 60% of all Hispanic eligible voters nationwide. Somewhat greater shares of all eligible voters in Arizona (71%) and all eligible voters nationwide (70%) live in owner-occupied homes.

Characteristics of Eligible Voters in Arizona, by Race and Ethnicity

• Number of Latino Eligible Voters. Latino eligible voters outnumber Native American eligible voters in Arizona by more than 4 to 1 and black eligible voters by more than 5 to 1.
• Age. Latino and Native American eligible voters are younger than black and white eligible voters in Arizona. Equal shares of Latinos and Native Americans (32%) are ages 18 to 29 compared with 25% of black eligible voters and 18% of white eligible voters.
• Educational Attainment. Hispanic eligible voters have lower levels of education than do white and black eligible voters in Arizona. Some 26% of Hispanic eligible voters have not obtained at least a high school diploma compared with 13% of black eligible voters and 8% of white eligible voters.
• Homeownership. Hispanic eligible voters (66%) are more likely to live in owner-occupied homes than Native American (57%) and black (43%) eligible voters in Arizona, but they are less likely to do so than white Arizona eligible voters (75%).

Hispanics in California’s Eligible Voter Population

• The Hispanic population in California is the largest in the nation. More than 13.4 million Hispanics reside in California, 29% of all Hispanics in the United States.
• The population in California is 37% Hispanic, the second-highest Hispanic population share nationally.
• There are 5.4 million eligible Hispanic voters in California—the largest Hispanic eligible-voter population nationally. Texas ranks second with 3.8 million.
• One-quarter (24%) of eligible voters in California are Latinos, the third-largest Hispanic eligible voter population share nationally. New Mexico ranks first with 38%.
• Some 40% of Latinos in California are eligible to vote, ranking California 22nd nationwide in the share of the Hispanic population that is eligible to vote. In contrast, 79% of the state’s white population is eligible to vote.

Characteristics of Eligible Voters

• Age. One third of Hispanic eligible voters in California (34%) are ages 18 to 29. By contrast, only 24% of all California eligible voters, 31% of Hispanic eligible voters nationwide and 22% of all U.S. eligible voters are in that age range.
• Citizenship. Nearly three-in-ten of Hispanic eligible voters in California (28%) are naturalized U.S. citizens, compared with 19% of all California eligible voters. Nationwide, 93% of all eligible voters are citizens by birth, as are 74% of all Hispanic voters, compared with 72% of California Hispanic eligible voters.
• Educational Attainment. Among Latino eligible voters in California 27% have not completed high school, similar to the share of all Latino eligible voters nationwide. Just 13% of all California eligible voters and all eligible voters nationwide have not completed high school.
• Homeownership. Hispanic eligible voters in California are less likely as all California eligible voters to live in an owner-occupied home—59% versus 63%. In contrast, a greater share of all eligible voters nationwide (70%) live in owner-occupied homes.

Characteristics of Eligible Voters in California, by Race and Ethnicity

• Number of Latino Eligible Voters. Latino eligible voters outnumber black eligible voters in California by more than 3 to 1—5.4 million versus 1.6 million. Twice as many Hispanics as Asians are eligible to vote in California—5.4 million versus 1.6 million.
• Age. In California, Latino eligible voters are younger than white, black and Asian eligible voters. More than one-in-three (34%) Latino eligible voters are ages 18 to 29 compared with 19% of white, 27% of black and 20% of Asian eligible voters.
• Citizenship. Asian eligible voters in California are more than twice as likely as Latino eligible voters to be naturalized citizens—70% versus 28%.
• Homeownership. California Latino eligible voters (59%) are less likely to live in owner-occupied homes than white (67%) and Asian (68%) eligible voters in California.