Like the U.S. population as a whole, Latinos are feeling the sting of the economic downturn. Almost one-in-ten (9%) Latino homeowners say they missed a mortgage payment or were unable to make a full payment and 3% say they received a foreclosure notice in the past year, according to a new national survey of 1,540 Latino adults conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center. Moreover, more than six-in-ten (62%) Latino homeowners say there have been foreclosures in their neighborhood over the past year, and 36% say they are worried that their own home may go into foreclosure. This figure rises to 53% among foreign-born Latino homeowners.

The economic downturn has also had an impact on the amount of money Latino immigrants send to family members or others in their country of origin. Among Hispanic immigrants who sent these remittances in the last two years, more than seven-in-ten (71%) say they sent less in the past year than in the prior year. However, while the amount of money Hispanic immigrants say they sent abroad has declined, the share of Hispanic immigrants who say they remitted funds is unchanged from 2006. More than half (54%) of foreign-born Hispanics, and more than one-in-three (36%) Latinos, say they sent remittances in the past year. In 2006, 51% of the foreign-born, and 35% of all Latinos, said they sent remittances in the prior year.

Latinos make up 15 percent of the total U.S. population, and in many respects their downbeat assessment of the nation’s economy is similar to that of the general population. According to a recent survey from the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press (December 2008), almost six-in-ten (59%) say the U.S. economy is in poor condition, a belief held by 63% of Latinos. And similar shares of the general U.S. population and Latinos say that jobs are difficult to find where they live—73% versus 78%.

However, Latinos hold a more negative view of their own current personal financial situation than does the population as a whole. More than three-in-four (75%) Latinos, and 84% of foreign-born Latinos, say their current personal finances are in either fair or poor shape, while 61% of the general U.S. population says that. But Latinos are more optimistic than others about the future: 67% expect that their financial circumstances will improve over the next year; just 56% of the general population feels the same way.

As the economy has soured, many Latinos are adjusting their economic behaviors. More than seven-in-ten (71%) report that they have cut back spending on eating out. Two-thirds (67%) say they planned to curtail holiday spending. More than one-fourth (28%) report that they helped a family member or friend with a loan.

A majority of Latinos (57%) say they do not have a very good understanding of recent financial problems involving financial institutions and companies with ties to the housing market that have dominated the economic news in recent months. When asked who or what has contributed to these problems, a large majority of survey respondents (76%) point a finger of blame at individuals who took on too much debt. But most Latinos also blame the lending policies of banks and financial institutions (70%) and insufficient government regulation of financial institutions (67%).

This report is based on a bilingual telephone survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,540 Hispanics ages 18 and older. Interviews were conducted from November 11 through November 30, 2008. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For a full description of the survey methodology, see Appendix A. Key findings of this study include the following:

Housing

• Half of adult Latinos are homeowners. Of this group, nearly one-in-ten (9%) say they have missed a mortgage payment in the past year.
• Among Latino homeowners, 3% have received a foreclosure notice in the past year.
• More than one-third (36%) of Latino homeowners are worried that their home may go into foreclosure in the next year.
• More than six-in-ten (62%) Latino homeowners say there have been foreclosures in their neighborhood in the past year.
• Nearly one-in-ten (8%) Latino homeowners say they have had a home equity loan denied in the past year, and 8% say they have had a home refinance application denied.

Remittances

• Among Hispanic immigrants who sent remittances in the last two years, more than seven-in-ten (71%) say they sent less in the past year compared with the prior year.
• Among foreign-born Hispanics who say they sent less money abroad in the past year, 83% cite financial circumstances as the main reason.
• More than half (54%) of foreign-born Hispanics say they have sent remittances abroad in the past year; 17% of native-born Hispanics say they have done so.
• According to central bank reports, remittances to Mexico and Central America increased rapidly from 2000 to 2006. However, growth has tapered off for most countries in the past two years. More details from these sources are available in Appendix C of this report.

Economic Conditions, Jobs and the Credit Crisis

• More than six-in-ten Hispanics (63%) say economic conditions today are poor, a sentiment shared by 59% of the general public.
• Similar shares of the general U.S. population and Latinos say that jobs are difficult to find where they live—73% versus 78%.
• A majority of Hispanics (57%) say they do not understand the financial problems involving Wall Street investment banks or other companies with ties to the housing market.
• When asked about who is to blame for the current economic financial crisis, Hispanics cite individuals taking on too much debt (76%); lending policies of banks and financial institutions (70%); and the lack of adequate government regulation of financial institutions (67%).

Personal Financial Situation

• More than three-quarters of Hispanics say their personal finances are in fair (46%) or poor shape (30%).
• Hispanics are more likely than the general U.S. population to rate their personal financial situation as poor or fair—75% versus 61%.
• More than eight-in-ten (84%) foreign-born Hispanics report that their finances are in either fair or poor shape. Among the native born, 66% say as much.
• Two-thirds (67%) of Latinos expect their personal financial situation to improve in the coming year, compared with 56% of the general population.
• Nearly one-in-four (23%) Latinos report that they have more debt than they can afford, while 25% of the general population reports the same.
• Hispanics are more likely than the general population to report that they have no credit card or installment loan debt—28% versus 19%.

Economic Behaviors

• Almost half of Latinos (47%) say they delayed or canceled plans to buy a car or make some other major purchase in the past year.
• More than seven-in-ten (71%) Latinos say they have cut back spending on eating out as a result of the economic downturn.
• Two-thirds (67%) of Latinos say they planned to curtail holiday spending as a result of the economic downturn.
• More than one-quarter (28%) of Latinos report that as a result of the economic downturn, they helped a family member or friend with a loan in the past year.
• Nearly two-in-ten (17%) say they received a loan from a family member or a friend in the past year.

About this Report

The National Survey of Latinos 2008, Economics and Politics, focuses on Hispanic adults’ views of the state of the economy, their own personal finances and housing market conditions. It also asks about the sending of remittances in the past year and how Latinos have changed their economic behaviors in the economic downturn. The survey was conducted from November 11 through November 30, 2008, among a randomly selected, nationally representative sample of 1,540 Hispanic adults. The survey was conducted in both English and Spanish. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points.

A Note on Terminology

The terms “Latino” and “Hispanic” are used interchangeably in this report, as are the terms “foreign born” and “immigrant.”

The terms “general population” and “general public” are used interchangeably in this report to refer to the entire U.S. adult population, including Hispanics.

Most Latino immigrants maintain some kind of connection to their native country by sending remittances, traveling back or telephoning relatives, but the extent of their attachment varies considerably. Only one-in-ten (9%) do all three of these so-called transnational activities; these immigrants can be considered highly attached to their home country. A much larger minority (28%) of foreign-born Latinos is involved in none of these activities and can be considered to have a low level of engagement with the country of origin. Most Latino immigrants (63%) show moderate attachment to their home country; they engage in one or two of these activities.

Latino immigrants who have been in the U.S. for decades and those who arrived as children are less connected than those who arrived more recently or migrated as adults. There are also significant differences by country of origin, with Colombians and Dominicans maintaining more active connections than Mexicans, and with Cubans having the least contact.

Whether Latino immigrants maintain active, moderate or limited connections is an important marker of their attitudes toward the U.S., their native country and their own lives as migrants. Those with the highest levels of engagement have deeper attachments to their country of origin than immigrants whose connections are less robust. They also have more favorable views of their native country in comparisons with the U.S. Nonetheless, a clear majority of even these immigrants see their future in the U.S. rather than in the countries from which they come.

Most Latino immigrants reveal moderate levels of engagement with the home country—both in the extent of their transnational activities and in their attitudes. They maintain some connections to the country of their birth through such activities as sending money or phoning regularly. And their opinions blend optimism about life in the U.S. and positive evaluations of some aspects of American society (notably political traditions) with less favorable comparisons to their native land on other aspects (such as morals). Their attachments and identities are a mix of views that might be expected of people navigating an emotional terrain that encompasses two nations. That mix differs in several important respects, with people who have been in the U.S. longer being more ready than recent arrivals to declare this country their homeland and to describe themselves as Americans.

The Pew Hispanic Center’s 2006 National Survey of Latinos collected data on a variety of transnational activities and a wide range of attitudes and beliefs. This report is based on a new analysis of that survey data, which for the first time examines the extent to which Latino immigrants with different characteristics maintain connections to their native lands and assesses how different levels of transnational activities are associated with an immigrant’s views on key subjects. The analysis thus explores the question of whether maintaining connections to a country of origin is associated with more positive or negative views of the U.S., a greater or lesser sense of attachment to this country and a stronger or weaker sense of identity as an American.

The 2006 National Survey of Latinos was conducted by telephone among a random sample of 2,000 Hispanic adults from June 5 to July 3. The respondents include 1,429 foreign-born Latinos whose activities and attitudes are explored in this report. Respondents could choose to be interviewed in English or Spanish. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8% for the full sample and plus or minus 4.4% for the foreign-born sample. Fieldwork for the survey was conducted by International Communications Research, an independent research firm headquartered in Media, Pa. (See appendix for detailed methodology. The full dataset is available for download at www.pewhispanic.org.)

Major findings include:

• Although transnational activities are a central characteristic of the Latino immigrant experience, only a small share of the immigrant population regularly engages in all three of the activities measured in the survey. Only one-in-ten (9%) of all Latino immigrants send remittances, make phone calls at least once a week and have traveled back to their country of origin in the past two years. Meanwhile, nearly three-in-ten (28%) do not engage in any of these activities. Most Latino immigrants (63%) engage in one or two of these activities.
• Just over half of all Latino immigrants (51%) send remittances (money sent to relatives in their country of origin) and 41% talk by telephone with a relative or friend there at least once a week. However, these activities are much more common among recent arrivals than among those who have been in the U.S. for many years. Among those in this country for less than 10 years, 63% send remittances and 62% phone at least weekly. Among those here for 30 years or more, 36% send remittances and 19% call at least weekly.
• Travel back to countries of origin follows a different pattern. Nearly two-thirds (65%) of all Latino immigrants have made at least one trip to their native country since moving to the U.S., and 29% have traveled in the past two years. The share making trips in the recent past is higher among immigrants with long tenure than among the recent arrivals. Acquiring U.S. citizenship, which is more common among those with more years of residence, is associated with higher levels of recent travel.
• The extent of engagement with the home country varies by country of origin. Larger shares of immigrants from Colombia and the Dominican Republic travel back and make frequent phone calls than those from Mexico and El Salvador. Levels of remittance sending are similar for Mexicans, Dominicans and Colombians but higher for Salvadorans. Cubans, who face significant legal restrictions on contact with their native land, have the lowest level of engagement among the major Hispanic country of origin groups.
• Two-thirds of Latino immigrants (66%) say they plan to stay in the U.S. for good, but this intention varies significantly depending on how long an individual has been in this country. Among those here for fewer than 10 years, 51% say they plan to stay, a stance shared by 85% of those who have already been here more than 30 years.
• Half of Latino immigrants (49%) say that their country of birth is their “real homeland,” while more than a third (38%) look upon the U.S. in that way. This measure of attachment also varies according to the amount of time someone has been here. More than twice as many immigrants who have been in the U.S. for fewer than 10 years (69%) cite their country of origin, compared with those here 30 years or more (32%). Among Latino immigrants who are not U.S. citizens, 59% say their country of origin is their real homeland, compared with 33% of those who have become U.S. citizens.
• Higher levels of engagement with the home country are associated with weaker attachment to the U.S. across several indicators. Immigrants engaging in more transnational activities are more likely to say that their country of origin is their real homeland, for example. Those with high engagement are also less likely to say that they plan to stay in the U.S. for good, but a clear majority of even these immigrants (67%) still see their future in the U.S. rather than in the countries from which they come.

A Note on Terminology

The terms Hispanic and Latino are used interchangeably in this report.

About this Report

Based on data from the 2006 National Survey of Latinos conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center, this report provides new findings on the extent to which foreign-born Latinos engage in a variety of transnational activities such as remittance sending and travel back to their country of origin and on how such activities relate to their attitudes toward the United States.

This assessment is based on data that indirectly reflect the pace of migration over time and are subject to statistical fluctuations, survey effects and other phenomena that limit the ability to accurately measure changes in immigration flows across short periods of time. No data offer specific measures of the number of foreign-born individuals entering the country at a given point in time.

Nonetheless, a similar pattern is evident across four indicators examined in this fact sheet: the size of the Mexican-born population living in the U.S.; the number of Hispanic immigrants employed in the U.S., particularly in the construction industry; remittance receipts reported by the Bank of Mexico; and apprehensions of people crossing illegally into the U.S. along the U.S.-Mexico border.

Overall migration flows to the U.S.—the number of foreign-born coming to live in the U.S.—surged at the end of the 1990s, peaked in 2000 and then fell off by more than a quarter following the 2001 recession and the slow recovery of the U.S. labor market. The size of migration flows then began to increase again in 2004. Mexicans accounted for roughly one-third of the annual flow throughout this period, and changes in the flow from Mexico closely tracked the overall trend. (See “Rise, Peak and Decline: Trends in U.S. Immigration 1992-2004, Pew Hispanic Center, 2005)

The available data suggest that the total population of Mexicans living in the U.S. grew steadily since 2004, with the total number entering the country—both legally and illegally—holding at relatively high levels or even increasing through mid-2006. The trend then appears to have changed towards smaller flows. Although the size of the change cannot be calculated with precision, the four indicators examined in this fact sheet all suggest less rapid growth in the first quarter of 2007 and perhaps also in the second half of 2006 compared to 2004 and 2005.

Migration flows, especially from Mexico, have been highly responsive in the past to levels of demand for new workers in the U.S. economy. However, a wide variety of factors, ranging from political conditions in sending countries to enforcement efforts by U.S. immigration authorities, can also affect the pace of immigration. The available data does not permit an assessment of which factors might be responsible for the slackening growth in migration flows from Mexico or their relative importance. This analysis does not attempt to forecast future flows, either for the short or long term.

The Mexican-born population

During the first quarter of 2007, the Mexican foreign-born population, including legal immigrants, legal visitors and unauthorized migrants, appears to have increased at a slower pace than in the previous two years overall.

Trend lines in the population data suggest generally rising growth rates through much of 2004 and 2005 with a flattening, albeit at a high level, apparently occurring in mid-2006. While the total number of Mexicans now being added to the U.S. population is significantly larger than it was two or three years ago, the pace of growth measured on a month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter basis seems to have slackened. These are tentative estimates because of the limitations of the available data.

The only reasonably current data on short-term changes in the U.S. population come from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS), which is conducted by the Census Bureau and the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics and is best known for producing the monthly measures of the unemployment rate. This section of the fact sheet focuses on CPS population data for individuals born in Mexico who reported living in the U.S. since 1990 because it offers the most reliable sample for the purposes of this analysis (see “Methodological notes” below.)

In mid-2000, there were about 4 million Mexicans living in the U.S. who had arrived since 1990. That population reached 6 million at the beginning of 2004 and about 7 million in the first quarter of 2007 (Figure 1). All further references to the “Mexican immigrant population” in this section are for individuals who were born in Mexico and have resided in the U.S. since 1990, regardless of their immigration status.

The analysis utilizes a variety of statistical techniques to assess trends in the CPS data for this population dating back to 1996, including year-to-year changes in monthly totals, quarterly averages, and moving averages as well as linear regressions covering the whole data series and overlapping 24-month periods. CPS data on discreet segments of the population are subject to fluctuations from one month to another as a result of a variety of statistical and survey effects.

Analyzing the data on a quarterly basis has the advantage of accumulating larger sample sizes and smoothing out some of the fluctuation in the monthly data. With some consistency, the various analyses of the population data point to the same trend: the Mexican-born population continued to increase in 2006 and 2007 but at a slower rate than in 2004 and 2005. The new trend is most evident in the population data for the first quarter of 2007, but analysis of the data suggests that the trend began to develop in the middle of 2006.

One way of tracking this trend is to compare the size of the population in one quarter to the size of the population in the same quarter of the previous year. That provides a measure of how much the population has grown over the prior 12 months and shows how the level of growth varies during four periods across a year.

Across the eight quarters of 2005 and 2006, the annual increase in the Mexican immigrant population averaged 495,000 persons (Figure 2). To arrive at this estimate, each of the four quarters of 2005 were compared to the same quarters in 2004, and the four quarters of 2006 were compared to the same quarters in 2005. In other words, new immigration from Mexico, net of return migration and other smaller factors added an average of 495,000 people a year measured on a quarterly basis across the whole of 2005 and 2006. However, in the first quarter of 2007 the annual growth since the first quarter of 2006 dropped to 288,000 persons.

Another way of looking at the data is to compare the rate of annual increase on a quarterly basis, i.e. the percent growth in population from the same quarter in the previous year. Again, the first quarter of 2007 is strikingly different from the average across the eight quarters that preceded it. On average, this population grew at a rate of 8.0% a year in 2005 and 2006 on a quarterly basis (Figure 3). In the first quarter of 2007, however, it continued to grow, but the annual increase on a quarterly basis was smaller—4.2%.

Several other types of statistical analyses can be applied to the CPS data to determine whether there are broad trends in the way the population numbers change from month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter. One technique averages the population numbers over various periods of time and isolates the variations among these averages using a regression analysis. That method does not yield precise measures of the rate of change, but it does provide a reliable indication of long-term trends while reducing short-term distortions in the data.

Applying this technique to monthly data and quarterly population averages as well as to three-month rolling averages produces similar results: The trend line slopes up more steeply in 2004 and 2005 than in 2006. Figure 4 is based on regression analyses of quarterly averages.¹ It shows a broad trend of increasing growth from the last quarter of 2004 through the second quarter of 2006 and a flattening of the growth rate since then.

Employment of Foreign-born Hispanics

Employment of foreign-born Latinos has been rising since mid-2003, when the labor market began to recover from the recession. While the increase in employment has varied from year to year since 2004, the employment outcomes for foreign-born Hispanics overall have been positive and remain so. However, employment during the first quarter of 2007 showed the smallest increase since the recovery began.

As with the population statistics analyzed above, the only current and demographically-detailed data on employment comes from the CPS. And again measuring annual change on a quarterly basis offers a means of assessing shortterm changes in the data while reducing some of the distortions in the monthly data. Comparing employment in one quarter to the same quarter in the previous year is also advantageous given seasonal fluctuations in the labor market. Given limitations in the size of CPS monthly samples, the employment data is analyzed here for all foreign-born Hispanics. The Mexican-born accounted for about 60% of that population in 2006.

Employment of foreign-born Latinos rose by 350,000 in the first quarter of 2007. (Figure 5) That was less growth than in any first quarter in the preceding three years, indeed less than for any one quarter. On average the annual gain measured on a quarterly basis was 651,000 from the beginning of 2004 to the end of 2006.

Employment for foreign-born Hispanics increased at annual rate of 3.3% in the first quarter of 2007 (Figure 6). By this measure as well the employment growth was slower than for any other first quarter, indeed for any quarter, in the preceding three years. On average from the beginning of 2004 to the end of 2006 employment increased by an annual rate 6.6%.

Employment in Construction

Foreign-born Hispanic workers have benefited from employment growth in the U.S. construction industry since 2004. That trend continued into the first quarter of 2007. Employment of foreign-born Latinos in construction increased by 230,000 compared with the first quarter in 2006.

The increase in employment in the first quarter of 2007 is below the trend for the most recent period of robust industry expansion that preceded it as well as for the average of the previous three years (Figure 7). From the beginning of 2004 through the end of 2006, the employment of foreign-born Latinos in the construction industry increased by an average of 286,000 persons on an annual basis as measured from one quarter or to the same quarter in the previous year. In 2006, for example, employment was up by 424,000 in the second quarter, 341,000 in the third quarter and 370,000 in the fourth quarter compared to the same quarters in 2005. In the first quarter of 2007 the increase was 230,000 compared to the first quarter of 2006.

Likewise, the percentage annual growth in construction employment measured on a quarterly basis was lower in the first quarter of 2007 than it had been in the three previous years (Figure 8). From the beginning of 2004 through the end of 2006, the employment of foreign-born Latinos in the construction industry increased by an average of 17.4%. In the first quarter of 2007, it was up 10.9% compared to the first quarter of 2006. That is indicative of substantial ongoing growth of employment for immigrant Latinos in the construction industry but at a somewhat slower rate than in the previous three years.

Remittances to Mexico

After rising steadily and substantially for several years, the growth in remittances sent to Mexico began slackening notably in mid-2006 and the rate of growth slowed through the first quarter of 2007. From the beginning of 2003 through the middle of 2006, remittance receipts showed annual increases averaging 26.5%, measured on a quarterly basis. Since mid-2006, the rate of annual growth has averaged 6.5%; in the first quarter of 2007 it was 3.4%.

The Bank of Mexico collects data on family remittances from banks, wire transfer companies and other financial agents on a monthly basis. These transfers are defined as money sent from an individual residing outside of Mexico to an individual living in the country. The vast majority originates in the U.S. and is believed to be dispatched by immigrants to family members still residing in Mexico. The flow of remittances can reflect a variety of factors, including the economic well-being of the persons on both ends of the remittance channel, the availability and cost of remittance transfer services as well as the flow of immigrants.

Remittance receipts have increased from a total of $13.4 billion in 2003 to $26 billion in 2006. Amid this overall growth, however, there have been seasonal fluctuations in remittance receipts, and as such the pace of increase is best measured by comparing the amount received in a given quarter to the receipts in the same quarter of the previous year (Figure 9). Remittance receipts posted annual increases of at least 19% in 13 of the 14 quarters from the beginning of 2003 through the middle of 2006. That trend ended in the third quarter of 2006 with an increase of 10.5% followed by 5.5% in the last quarter of 2006 and 3.4% in the first quarter of 2007 (Figure 10).

Apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico Border

After rising in 2004 and 2005, the number of apprehensions by the Border Patrol along the U.S.-Mexico border has dropped steadily since the second quarter of 2006 once seasonal variations are taken into account. In the first quarter of 2007, the number of apprehensions was 31% lower than in the comparable period a year earlier.

Border Patrol apprehension data reflect the extent of law enforcement activity and its effectiveness as well as the level of migration across the border. Moreover, the data is for the number of apprehensions and not the number of individuals who are arrested. In other words, the total number of apprehensions in a given time period will be greater than the total number of unique individuals apprehended because some will have been apprehended more than once. The apprehension data, therefore, can only serve as a very rough and inexact proxy for the level of migration activity across the border. Nonetheless, looking back across several years of data suggests the possibility that the underlying trend changed in 2006.

Striking seasonal fluctuations are apparent in the apprehension data (Figure 11). The highest numbers of apprehensions are recorded from February to May as migrants move north for the construction and harvesting seasons. Meanwhile the lowest numbers of apprehensions are registered in November and December when many unauthorized migrants travel south for the holidays. That seasonal pattern has remained consistent for many years, regardless of whether the total number of apprehensions for the entire year is up or down. Looking back to the start of the decade, for example, the highest number of apprehensions has occurred in March of every year.

From 2004 to 2006, monthly apprehensions during the peak months leveled off at about 150,000. The latest data, for March 2007, shows the number of apprehensions declined to about 114,000. That represents a 30% decrease from March 2006, when apprehensions exceeded 160,000.

Examining the annual change on a quarterly basis suggests a change in the trend occurred in mid-2006 (Figure 12). In 2004, apprehensions in every quarter were substantially higher than in the same quarter of 2003, with increases ranging from 23,000 in the fourth quarter to 109,000 in the second quarter. During the first two quarters of 2005, apprehensions were down somewhat compared to the same quarters of 2004, but quarter-to-quarter increases were registered through the second half of 2005 and the first quarter of 2006. For four quarters in a row since the second quarter of 2006, apprehensions have decreased on an annual basis. The sharpest drop occurred in the first quarter of 2007, when there were 122,000 fewer apprehensions than in the first quarter of 2006.

Analyzing the rate of annual change on a quarterly basis paints a similar picture (Figure 13). In percentage terms, apprehensions grew solidly in every quarter of 2004 compared to the same quarters of 2003, with increases averaging 25%. The trend was slightly negative in the first (-2%) and second (-1%) quarters of 2005 before it picked up for the next three quarters, which averaged gains of 9%. Since the second quarter of 2006, apprehensions have been down by an average of 27% in every quarter compared to the same quarter in the previous year.

Methodological Notes

The foreign born population of the U.S. changes through the arrival of new immigrants from abroad, the departure of immigrants from the U.S. and reductions resulting from the deaths of immigrants living in the country. When established through surveys, including the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS), both the size of the foreign-born population and the level of change within it are also affected by sampling variability.

Changes in the size of Mexican-born population that entered the U.S. since 1990 largely reflect net immigration, which is dominated by new in-flows that lead to an increasing population. The post 1990 Mexican population is relatively young and thus not subject to significant mortality. It also can be consistently measured throughout the period analyzed (1996–2007) and is large enough so as not to be subject to relatively large fluctuations from sampling variability. In contrast, the population of Mexican immigrants who entered the U.S. before 1990 steadily decreases in size over time. That group is subject to significant reductions from mortality and emigration and receives no new additions from in-migration.

In analyzing data on post 1990 entrants from Mexico, differences over time, as from the same month in the previous year, represent net additions from immigration. Those measures are analyzed over periods of at least one year to minimize the impact of sampling variability. Conceptually, month-to-month differences or quarter-to-quarter differences are also measures of change (from immigration). However, the sampling error on such measures is sufficiently large that the results tend to be statistically insignificant.

The fact sheet also uses the population data for two other measures. For a number of comparisons, the three monthly CPS figures from calendar quarters are averaged before the data are subjected to further analyses. That process serves to further minimize the impact of short term fluctuations (from sampling and other sources) on the results. In several places, the fact sheet includes the estimated slope of a regression line for the monthly or quarterly population data (one such regression line is shown in Figure 1.) The slope of the time trend represents the rate of change in the population. It is reported in units that can be interpreted as the average monthly increase in the population from immigration.

A survey of nearly 5,000 Mexican migrants who were interviewed while applying for identity cards at Mexican consulates in the United States has found that an overwhelming majority would vote in Mexican elections scheduled for next year if they had the opportunity. The Mexican Congress is now debating a proposal that would permit absentee voting by Mexicans living outside the country for the first time.

Nearly nine out of ten (87%) respondents said they would vote in the next Mexican elections if they could, and the sentiment carried in near equal measure across every demographic, socio-economic and geographic category except for age. Older respondents were somewhat more likely than younger voters to say they wanted to vote in the elections.

A key issue in the congressional debate in Mexico is whether to permit voting only by migrants who already hold a valid voting credential issued in Mexico or whether to issue credentials in the United States. In the survey sample, 42 percent of the respondents said they had brought their voting credential with them to the United States. Respondents who have arrived in the United States more recently are more likely to have a voting credential with them than those who have been here longer. For example, 64 percent of respondents who have been in the United States for two years or less said they have the credential with them, compared with 29 percent of those who have been in the country for more than 15 years.

The Pew Hispanic Center’s Survey of Mexican Migrants provides detailed information on the demographic characteristics, living arrangements, work experiences and attitudes toward immigration of 4,836 Mexican adults who completed a 12-page questionnaire as they were applying for a matrícula consular, an identity document issued by Mexican consulates. Fieldwork was conducted in Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, Raleigh, NC, and Fresno, CA, from July 12, 2004, to Jan. 28, 2005.

The sampling strategy for the survey was designed to generate the maximum number of observations of Mexicans living in the United States and seeking documentation of their identity at a Mexican consulate. Respondents were not asked directly to specify their immigration status. However, slightly more than half of the respondents (N=2,566) said that they did not have any form of photo ID issued by any government agency in the United States. The share of respondents saying they had no U.S.-issued identity documents was much higher among the more recently arrived—80 percent among those in the country for two years or less and 75 percent for those in the country for five years or less.

This is the second in a series of reports on the survey’s findings. The first report examined attitudes towards immigration and major demographic characteristics. Subsequent reports will examine a variety of topics in detail, including the migrants’ their employment and economic status, banking and remittances, and gender and family structure. The full dataset of survey responses will be made available to researchers on Sept. 1, 2005, through the Pew Hispanic Center Web site (www.pewhispanic.org).

Major findings in this report include:

• The prospect of voting in Mexican elections has broad and deep appeal among survey respondents, with 87 percent saying they would vote if they could.
• The same overwhelming sentiment in favor of voting was expressed across every demographic category and in every location where the survey was conducted. No significant differences emerged by gender, education or the amount of time a respondent had spent in the United States.
• Older voters were somewhat more likely to say they wanted to exercise the franchise in Mexico, with 90 percent of those over the age of 50 saying they would vote if they could, compared with 84 percent of those 18 to 29 years old.
• In the survey sample, 42 percent of respondents said they had brought their Mexican voting credentials with them to the United States while 54 percent said they had not.
• The share of respondents saying they had a credential with them in the United State was highest among the most recently arrived migrants. The share of respondents who had been in the United States for two years or less saying they held a credential was 64 percent, compared with 29 percent of those who had been in the United States 15 years or longer.
• Several Mexican states, particularly in the south of the country, have patterns of migration that have been established more recently than those in states in the center of the country that have been sending large numbers of migrants north for many decades. This is reflected in the share of respondents who say they have a voting credential with them in the United States. For example, 63 percent of the respondents from Veracruz, a state with a recent history of migration, said they had the credential with them compared with 37 percent of those from Jalisco, a state with a long-established history of migration.
• A little more than a third (35%) of the respondents said they owned land, housing or a business in Mexico, but the share was much higher among men (43%) than among women (24%).
• The survey respondents showed a high propensity to send money home to their families in the form of remittances. Nearly eight in ten (78%) said they send money to Mexico, and about half (52%) said they send money once a month or more.
• More than half of the survey respondents (54%) said they talk with their family in Mexico by phone at least once a week. Even among those who have been in the United States for more than ten years, 46 percent are on the phone to Mexico at least once a week.
• A substantial share of respondents, even the youngest and those who have arrived most recently, said they have previously visited the United States. About half the respondents ages 18 to 29 and a third who have been in the country for two years or less said they have made prior trips to the United States.

The Survey of Mexican Migrants was a purposive sample, in which any individual seeking an identity document on the days the survey was in progress could choose to participate. It was not a probability sample, in which researchers randomly select participants in a survey to avoid any self-selection bias. Moreover, the results have not been weighted to match the estimated parameters of a target population as is often the case with public opinion surveys. Instead the data are presented as raw counts.

Conducting a survey of matrícula applicants on the premises of Mexican consulates while they waited for paperwork to be processed permitted the execution of a lengthy questionnaire among a large number of individuals in the target population. No other survey on this scale has been attempted with Mexican migrants living in the United States.

The survey allows an extraordinary view of a population that by its very nature is exceptionally difficult to measure and study: Mexicans who live in the country without proper documentation and in particular those who have been in the country for only a few years. The survey data and other evidence suggest that a substantial share of the respondents, especially among those that are young and recently arrived, are not in the United States with legal immigrant status. Over the past decade 80 percent or more of the Mexican migrants who have come to live in the United States on a long-term basis have added to the stock of the unauthorized population, according to estimates based on data collected by Mexican and U.S. government agencies.

The matrícula consular is a laminated identity card that bears an individual’s photograph, name and home address in the United States and that attests that he or she is a citizen of Mexico. The card is issued by Mexican officials without inquiring as to the individual’s immigration status in the United States. As such, it cannot be used as proof of permission to reside or work in the country, and U.S. immigration authorities will not accept it as proof that the holder has the right to enter the country. However, the matrícula is accepted as an identity document that establishes the holder’s local address by many law enforcement agencies and local governments. The U.S. Treasury Department ruled in 2003 that the matrícula can be used to open bank accounts.

For individuals returning to Mexico, the matrícula can be used in place of a Mexican passport to enter Mexico at those points of entry, primarily airports, where Mexican authorities conduct immigration checks. And, 43 percent of the respondents said one of their intended uses of the matrícula was for travel to Mexico. However, an individual who plans to return to the United States legally will need a valid Mexican passport and some kind of U.S.-issued visa to reenter the country except for short visits near the border.

The Survey of Mexican Migrants was conducted on the premises of the Mexican consulates in Los Angeles, New York, Dallas, Chicago, Fresno, Raleigh and Atlanta, but respondents were advised that this was not an official survey and that it would have no bearing on their business at the consulate. Mexican authorities cooperated with the fieldwork by allowing it to take place at the consulates. However, the design, development and execution of the survey, the compilation and analysis of the resulting data and the production of this report were under the full and exclusive control of the Pew Hispanic Center. Consulate personnel did not take part in any of the fieldwork, and all of the costs of conducting the survey were borne by the Pew Hispanic Center. Fieldwork was conducted by International Communications Research of Media, PA, and Einat Temkin, of the University of Southern California Annenberg School for Communications, who served as fieldwork coordinator. Respondents could complete the questionnaire themselves, seek the assistance of an interviewer for any part of it or have the entire questionnaire read to them by an interviewer. All of the fieldwork was conducted in Spanish.

The sites for the survey fieldwork were chosen with several objectives in mind. One was to cover the major concentrations of the Mexican migrant population; hence the choices of California, Illinois and Texas. There was also a desire to produce a mix of locations with well-established immigrant populations, such as Los Angeles, and relatively new immigrant populations, such as Raleigh. And the survey sought a mix of major metropolitan areas, smaller cities and at least one site where a sizeable share of the Mexican population works in agriculture (Fresno). Thus there are some significant variations in demographic characteristics among the samples generated in the various cities.

No researcher has attempted to conduct a survey of a nationally representative sample of the undocumented population that was drawn with the level of statistical certainty that is routine for large-scale public opinion polls, and this survey does not purport to present that kind of sample. Within limits inherent to the nature of the target population, however, the Survey of Mexican Migrants offers an opportunity to examine this population at a level of detail and with a level of confidence not available heretofore.

Neither the U.S. Census Bureau nor any other U.S. government agency conducts a count of unauthorized migrants or defines their demographic characteristics based on specific enumeration. There is, however, a widely accepted methodology for estimating the size and certain characteristics of the undocumented population based on census data. The survey respondents resemble the undocumented population of Mexican origins in recent estimates in their age and gender and the amount of time they have been in the United States.

The sample for this survey drew heavily from among young and recently arrived migrants. The largest age group was the 48 percent of respondents who were 18 to 29 years old. Of the total, 43 percent said they had been in the United States for five years or less. By comparison, only 34 percent of the full Mexican-born population—including the undocumented, legal immigrants and U.S. citizens—living in the United States falls into the 18-to-29-year-old age range, and only 24 percent has been in the country for five years or less.

For more information on how this survey was conducted and a comparison of the sample with estimates of the undocumented population, please see the appendix on methodology at the end of this report.

• Although the cost of sending remittances is now much lower than in the late 1990s, the rate of decline has slowed markedly in the past three years. Prices have dropped only slowly despite rapidly growing volume and increased competition in the marketplace. This suggests that further price reductions might be difficult to achieve under current market conditions.
• A substantial number of banks and credit unions in the United States have launched major initiatives in remittance services over the past three years. So far, however, they have captured only a small fraction of the market which continues to be dominated by wire transfer firms. In the U.S.-Mexico channel, which has been the target of most of the effort, American financial institutions account for no more than 3 percent of the remittance traffic. Currently, with the exception of debit card withdrawals, the cost of sending the average remittance from the United States to Mexico is about the same whether it is sent via a bank or a wire transfer firm.

Key findings from the 2003 MIF-PHC studies of remittance receiving populations in
Latin America include:

• Broad sectors of the adult populations in all the nations studied are receiving remittances: 14 percent in Ecuador, 23 percent in Central America and 18 percent in Mexico.

• Remittance flows were largely unaffected by the U.S. economic downturn of 2001-2002. In every country except El Salvador more than half of the recipients reported that they had started getting money from relatives abroad over the past three years.

• While in other countries remittance receipts are still concentrated in the lower rungs of the socio-economic ladder, in Mexico remittances are flowing to all sectors of Mexican society and to virtually every region. Most significantly, in Mexico there were no statistically significant differences between remittance receivers and the general population in age, educational profile or income distribution.

• The one characteristic that clearly distinguishes remittance receivers from the general population in all the countries studied is that a majority are women.

• In Mexico, 19 percent of all adults, representing some 13.5 million people, answered positively when asked, “Are you thinking about emigrating to the United States?” Remittance receivers were much more likely (26 percent) to have migration in mind than those who are not (17 percent)