The electorate in last year’s presidential election was the most racially and ethnically diverse in U.S. history, with nearly one-in-four votes cast by non-whites, according to a new analysis of Census Bureau data by the Pew Research Center.¹ The nation’s three biggest minority groups—blacks, Hispanics and Asians—each accounted for unprecedented shares of the presidential vote in 2008.

Overall, whites² made up 76.3% of the record 131 million people³ who voted in November’s presidential election, while blacks made up 12.1%, Hispanics 7.4% and Asians 2.5%.⁴ The white share is the lowest ever, yet is still higher than the 65.8% white share of the total U.S. population (Pew Hispanic Center, 2009).

The unprecedented diversity of the electorate last year was driven by increases both in the number and in the turnout rates of minority eligible voters.

The levels of participation by black, Hispanic and Asian eligible voters all increased from 2004 to 2008, reducing the voter participation gap between themselves and white eligible voters. This was particularly true for black eligible voters. Their voter turnout rate increased 4.9 percentage points, from 60.3% in 2004 to 65.2% in 2008, nearly matching the voter turnout rate of white eligible voters (66.1%). For Hispanics, participation levels also increased, with the voter turnout rate rising 2.7 percentage points, from 47.2% in 2004 to 49.9% in 2008. Among Asians, voter participation rates increased from 44.6% in 2004 to 47.0% in 2008. Meanwhile, among white eligible voters, the voter turnout rate fell slightly, from 67.2% in 2004 to 66.1% in 2008.

Much of the surge in black voter participation in 2008 was driven by increased participation among black women and younger voters. The voter turnout rate among eligible black female voters increased 5.1 percentage points, from 63.7% in 2004 to 68.8% in 2008. Overall, among all racial, ethnic and gender groups, black women had the highest voter turnout rate in November’s election—a first.

Blacks ages 18 to 29 increased their voter turnout rate by 8.7 percentage points, from 49.5% in 2004 to 58.2% in 2008, according to an analysis by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) at Tufts University. The voter turnout rate among young black eligible voters was higher than that of young eligible voters of any other racial and ethnic group in 2008. This, too, was a first (Kirby and Kawashima-Ginsberg, 2009).

The increased diversity of the electorate was also driven by population growth, especially among Latinos. Between 2004 and 2008, the number of Latino eligible voters rose from 16.1 million in 2004 to 19.5 million in 2008, or 21.4%. In comparison, among the general population, the total number of eligible voters increased by just 4.6%.

In 2008, Latino eligible voters accounted for 9.5% of all eligible voters, up from 8.2% in 2004. Similarly, the share of eligible voters who were black increased from 11.6% in 2004 to 11.8% in 2008. The share of eligible voters who were Asian also increased, from 3.3% in 2004 to 3.4% in 2008. In contrast, the share of eligible voters who were white fell from 75.2% in 2004 to 73.4% in 2008.

With population growth and increased voter participation among blacks, Latinos and Asians, members of all three groups cast more votes in 2008 than in 2004. Two million more blacks and 2 million more Latinos reported voting in 2008 than said the same in 2004. Among Asians, 338,000 more votes were reported cast in 2008 than in 2004. The number of white voters in 2008 was also up, but only slightly—increasing from 99.6 million in 2004 to 100 million in 2008.

The Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data also finds a distinct regional pattern in the state-by-state increases in turnout. From 2004 to 2008, the greatest increases were in Southern states with large black eligible voter populations: Mississippi (where the voter turnout rate was up 8 percentage points), Georgia (7.5 points), North Carolina (6.1 points) and Louisiana (6.0 points). It also increased in the District of Columbia (6.9 points).⁵

According to the exit polls in last year’s presidential election, the candidate preference of non-white voters was distinctly different from that of white voters. Nearly all (95%) black voters cast their ballot for Democrat Barack Obama. Among Latino voters, 67% voted for Obama while 31% voted for Republican John McCain. Among Asian voters, 62% supported Obama and 35% voted for McCain. In contrast, white voters supported McCain (55%) over Obama (43%).

This report summarizes the participation of voters in the 2008 presidential election and follows reports from the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center, on the Latino vote (Lopez and Livingston, 2009; Lopez, 2008; Taylor and Fry, 2007) and Latino public opinion about the election and the candidates (Lopez and Minushkin, 2008).

The data for this report are derived from the November Voting and Registration Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS is a monthly survey of about 55,000 households conducted by the Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The November Voting and Registration Supplement is one of the richest sources available of information about the characteristics of voters. It is conducted after Election Day and relies on survey respondent self-reports of voting and voter registration.

Comparing the Census Bureau’s Turnout Estimate with the Reported Vote Tally

The Census Bureau’s biannual Current Population Survey November Voting and Registration Supplement is the most comprehensive data source available for examining the demographic composition of the electorate in federal elections. However, because it relies on post-election self-reporting by survey respondents in some 55,000 households, these weighted CPS estimates of turnout never match up precisely with the actual number of votes tallied in the 50 states. According to the CPS, an estimated 131.1 million U.S. citizens voted in the 2008 presidential election – slightly less than the 131.3 million votes cast for president, as reported by the Center for the Study of the American Electorate (Gans, 2008) and other sources (McDonald, 2009).

This is the first time since the Census Bureau began taking a post-election survey in 1964 that its estimate is smaller than the number of votes tallied by the states. Prior to 2008, the gap had always run in the opposite direction, with variances ranging between a low of 2.8% (in 2004) and a high of 11.6% (in 1988). Since the 1996 presidential election, the gap has narrowed steadily, and in 2008, the lines crossed for the first time.

Election experts and scholars who have examined this gap over the years have theorized that it stems, at least in part, from a tendency of some Census Bureau survey respondents to report that they had voted even if they had not (Bernstein, Chadha and Montjoy, 2001). Another possible explanation is that in every election, some small portion of ballots are improperly cast and do not become a part of the official count—but the voters who cast such ballots report to the Census Bureau that they had voted.

There is no consensus among experts to explain the recent convergence in the number of votes tallied by the states and those reported by the Census Bureau. One possibility is that there has been a decline in spoiled, uncounted ballots in recent elections. Another possibility is that there has been an increase in voting by U.S. citizens living abroad – a group that is not included in the CPS survey (McDonald, 2009). A third possible explanation is that the accuracy of the CPS itself may have improved.

About this Report

This report summarizes the participation and characteristics of voters in the 2008 presidential election. The data for this report are derived from the November Voting and Registration Supplement of the Current Population Survey. The CPS is a monthly survey of about 55,000 households conducted by the Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau. The November Voting and Registration Supplement is one of the richest sources of information about the characteristics of voters available. It is conducted after Election Day and relies on survey respondent self-reports of voting and voter registration.

A Note on Terminology

The terms “Latino” and “Hispanic” are used interchangeably in this report. The terms “whites,” “blacks” and “Asians” are used to refer to the non-Hispanic components of their population.

A year and a half after a lengthy, often rancorous debate over immigration reform filled the chambers of a stalemated Congress, the issue appears to have receded in importance among one of the groups most affected by it—Latinos.

Only three-in-ten (31%) Latinos rate immigration as an “extremely important” issue facing the incoming Obama administration, placing it sixth on a list of seven policy priorities that respondents were asked to assess in a nationwide survey of 1,007 Latino adults conducted from December 3 to December 10, 2008 by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center.

The top-rated issue among Latinos is the economy; 57% of Hispanics say it is an extremely important one for the new president to address. Education, health care, national security and the environment all also rate higher than immigration as a policy priority among Hispanics, while energy policy ranks lower.

Latinos, who make up 15% of the U.S. population, are by far the nation’s biggest immigrant group. According to Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2006 American Community Survey, more than half (55%) of Latinos ages 18 and older are immigrants, and 47% of all immigrants ages 18 and older are Hispanic. Even at the apex of the congressional debate over immigration reform in 2007, however, the issue never rose to the top of Latinos’ priority list. Of six issues asked of Latinos in a 2007 Pew Hispanic Center survey, it ranked fifth. But back then, 38% of Hispanics judged immigration to be an extremely important issue—more than the 31% who say the same thing in the new survey.

Moreover, in an open-ended question on this latest survey, just 6% of Latino respondents who voted in the 2008 election cited immigration as the issue that mattered most to them as they went to the polls. Five times as many named the economy (31%). Higher shares also named candidate attributes (14%) and a general desire for change (13%). In last year’s presidential election, Latino voters supported Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden over Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin by more than two-to-one—67% to 31% (Lopez 2008).¹

The immigration issue has fallen in importance since 2007 among the general population as well. While 56% of all registered voters cited immigration as a very important issue in 2007 (Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, October 2007), this share fell to 49% in late 2008 (Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, October 2008).

The latest Pew Hispanic Center survey also explored attitudes among Latinos about the incoming Obama administration and the outgoing Bush administration, and it examined a range of political activities that Latinos engaged in during the historic 2008 presidential campaign. Among its other key findings:

• In last year’s presidential election, Latino voters were more than twice as likely as voters in the general population to be first-time voters—21% versus 8%. Among Latino voters ages 18-29, 47% were first-time voters.
• Hispanics are optimistic about the incoming Barack Obama administration. More than seven-in-ten (72%) say they expect Obama to have a successful first term.
• More than half (54%) of Latinos say that the failures of the Bush administration will outweigh its successes. In comparison, 64% of the U.S. general population holds the same view.
• Almost three-fourths (74%) of Latinos say they were more interested in last year’s presidential election than in the 2004 election.
• Three-in-four (75%) Latinos say they were satisfied with the field of presidential candidates in 2008.
• Overall, 83% of Hispanic voters say they learned enough from the campaigns to make informed choices.
• Almost four-in-ten (38%) Latinos say they were contacted and encouraged to register to vote or to get out to vote.
• Among Latinos contacted in the 2008 election campaign, 59% say they were contacted by the Obama campaign, while 43% say they were contacted by the McCain campaign.
• Television was the most popular conduit of news about the 2008 presidential campaign among Latinos. More than eight-in-ten (82%) report obtaining most of their election news through television. Eighteen percent used newspapers to get most of their election news, 18% used the Internet for most of their news, and 10% of all Latinos obtained most of their campaign news through radio. In addition, 21% of respondents report getting at least some election news from the Internet.
• Almost one-quarter (23%) of Latinos who obtained campaign information from television report that the information was in Spanish, while one-third (33%) got their television news in English; 44% obtained television news about the election in both languages.
• More than half (51%) of Latinos say they participated in at least one political activity other than voting during the 2008 election season. More than one-third (36%) say they used the Internet to research a candidate; 26% tried to persuade someone to vote for or against a particular party; 18% say they displayed material or wore clothing related to a political campaign; 11% say they attended a political or campaign-related event; 9% say they contributed money to a candidate; and 5% say they volunteered or worked for a political candidate.
• Forty-four percent of Hispanics say that the recent election has made them more likely to participate in politics in the future.

This report is based on two bilingual telephone surveys. The first, the 2008 National Survey of Latinos, Economics and Politics, is a nationally representative sample of 1,540 Hispanics ages 18 and older. Interviews were conducted from November 11 through November 30, 2008. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
The second survey, the Pew Hispanic Center 2008 Politics Omnibus, was conducted among a nationally representative sample of 1,007 Latino respondents ages 18 and older, from December 3 through December 10, 2008. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For a full description of methodologies for both surveys, see Appendix A.

About this Report

This report utilizes results from two national surveys of Hispanic adults. First, the 2008 National Survey of Latinos, Economics and Politics, examines Hispanic adults’ views of the 2008 election and their participation in political activities in the 2008 election. The survey was conducted from November 11 through November 30, 2008, among a randomly selected, nationally representative sample of 1,540 Hispanic adults. The survey was conducted in both English and Spanish. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

The second survey, the Pew Hispanic Center 2008 Politics Omnibus, was conducted among a nationally representative sample of 1,007 Latino respondents ages 18 and older, from December 3 through December 10, 2008. The survey was conducted in both English and Spanish. The margin of error for total respondents is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For a full description of the methodology for both surveys, see Appendix A.

A Note on Terminology

The terms “Latino” and “Hispanic” are used interchangeably in this report, as are the terms “foreign born” and “immigrant.”

The terms “general population” and “general public” are used interchangeably in this report to refer to the entire U.S. adult population, including Hispanics.

Hispanics voted for Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden over Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin by a margin of more than two-to-one in the 2008 presidential election, 67% versus 31%, according to an analysis by the Pew Hispanic Center of exit polls from Edison Media Research as published by CNN.¹ The Center’s analysis also finds that 9% of the electorate was Latino, as indicated by the national exit poll. This is higher, by one percentage point, than the share in the 2004 national exit poll.²Nationally, all Latino demographic sub-groups voted for Obama by heavy margins. According to the national exit poll, 64% of Hispanic males and 68% of Hispanic females supported Obama. Latino youth, just as all youth nationwide, supported Obama over McCain by a lopsided margin – 76% versus 19%.Obama carried the Latino vote by sizeable margins in all states with large Latino populations. His biggest breakthrough came in Florida, where he won 57% of the Latino vote in a state where Latinos have historically supported Republican presidential candidates (President Bush carried 56% of the Latino vote in Florida in 2004). Obama’s margins were much larger in other states with big Latino populations. He carried 78% of the Latino vote in New Jersey, 76% in Nevada, and 74% in California.

In an election year when voter participation rose across the board, Latinos increased their share of the national vote to 9% from 8% in 2004 according to the national exit poll. In several states, however, Latinos represented a larger share of voters this year than in 2004. The largest increases in the share of voters who are Hispanic occurred in the states of New Mexico (9 percentage points higher), Colorado (5 points higher) and Nevada (5 points higher), all three battleground states in this year’s election.

Nationwide, the Latino vote was significantly more Democratic this year than in 2004, when President Bush captured an estimated 40% of the Hispanic vote, a modern high for a Republican presidential candidate.³

But even though McCain’s Latino vote fell well below that of President’s Bush’s in 2004, it was still much higher than the 21% share of the Hispanic vote that Sen. Robert Dole received as the GOP presidential nominee in 1996. McCain’s Latino vote this year was similar to the 30% share of the Latino vote that GOP congressional candidates received in 2006.

Meantime, Obama’s 67% share of the Latino vote in the 2008 general election represented a major reversal of fortunes for him since the Democratic primaries, when he lost the Latino vote to Sen. Hillary Clinton by a margin of nearly two-to-one (Minushkin and Lopez, 2008). No other major demographic voting group in the country swung so heavily to Obama as Latinos did between the primaries and the general election this year. According to the 2008 National Survey of Latinos, conducted in June and July of this year, 75% of Latino registered voters who said they supported Clinton in the primaries switched their support to Obama (Lopez and Minushkin, 2008).

This report contains an analysis of exit poll results for the Latino vote in 9 states and for the U.S.

About this Report

Exit poll results for this report were obtained from CNN’s Election 2008 website and are based on the Edison Media Research’s National Election Pool national and state exit poll surveys of voters as reported on November 7, 2008. In addition to an analysis of the national Latino vote, nine states were examined. These states are Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico and Texas.

A Note on Terminology

The terms “Latino” and “Hispanic” are used interchangeably in this report.

The terms “whites,” “blacks” and “others” are used to refer to the non-Hispanic components of their population.

Recommended Citation

Mark Hugo Lopez. The Hispanic Vote in 2008. Washington, DC: Pew Hispanic Center, November 2008.

However, the final 2008 general election voter registration figures from Florida, along with recent data from the U.S. Census, show significant changes in both the political leanings and the demographics of Latinos in the electoral-rich Sunshine State.

This year more Hispanics in Florida are registered as Democrats (513,252) than as Republicans (445,526). As recently as 2006, the reverse was true: among Latino registered voters in Florida, more were Republican (414,185) than Democratic (369,906).³

According to the Florida Department of State Division of Elections, Latinos make up 12% of all registered voters in Florida this year, up from 11% in 2006. Their move toward the Democratic Party is part of a broader realignment among the overall electorate of the state. Today, there are 657,775 more registered Democrats than registered Republicans in Florida. In 2006, the Democrat registration advantage was smaller – just 283,856.

As the partisan affiliation of Florida Hispanics has shifted in recent years, so too have their demographic characteristics – especially their patterns of ancestry. Today, Hispanics of Cuban ancestry represent a smaller share (34%) of eligible Hispanic voters than they did in 1990 (46%). Meanwhile, Puerto Ricans and Hispanics of other ancestry represent a greater share of Hispanic eligible voters today compared to 1990. In 2007, 29% of Hispanic eligible voters were of Puerto Rican ancestry, up from 24% in 1990. And the share of Hispanic eligible voters of other ancestry was 37% in 2007, up from 30% in 1990.⁴

In 2004 Hispanic voters accounted for 11% of all voters in Florida and 6% of all voters nationwide.⁵ Nationally today, 18.5 million Latinos are eligible to vote, accounting for 9% of all eligible voters.⁶

With 27 electoral votes, the battleground state of Florida is once again playing an important role in a presidential election. And, in a year when interest in the election is running high across the country, more Floridians are registered to vote than ever. According to the Division of Elections, 11.2 million Floridians are registered to vote, 8% more than in 2006. Voter registrations among Hispanics in Florida are also higher this year than in 2006. More than 1.36 million Florida Hispanics are registered to vote, up 22%.

Hispanic registered voters support Democrat Barack Obama for president over Republican John McCain by 66% to 23%, according to a nationwide survey of 2,015 Latinos conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center, from June 9 through July 13, 2008. The presumptive Democratic nominee’s strong showing in this survey represents a sharp reversal in his fortunes from the primaries, when Obama lost the Latino vote to Hillary Clinton by a nearly two-to-one ratio, giving rise to speculation in some quarters that Hispanics were disinclined to vote for a black candidate.

But in this new survey, three times as many respondents said being black would help Obama (32%) with Latino voters than said it would hurt him (11%); the majority (53%) said his race would make no difference to Latino voters.

Obama is rated favorably by 76% of Latino registered voters, making him much more popular among that voting group than McCain (44% favorable) and President Bush (27% favorable). Hillary Clinton’s ratings among Latino registered voters are 73% favorable and 24% unfavorable; Obama’s are 76% favorable and 17% unfavorable.

Also, more than three-quarters (77%) of Latinos who reported that they voted for Clinton in the primaries now say they are inclined to vote for Obama in the fall election, while just 8% say they are inclined to vote for McCain. That means that Obama is doing better among Hispanics who supported Clinton than he is among non-Hispanic white Clinton supporters, 70% of whom now say they have transferred their allegiance to Obama while 18% say they plan to vote for McCain, according to a recent survey by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.

Latino registered voters rank education, the cost of living, jobs and health care as the most important issues in the fall campaign, with crime lagging a bit behind those four and the war in Iraq and immigration still farther behind. On each of these seven issues, Obama is strongly favored over McCain—by lopsided ratios ranging from about three-to-one on education, jobs, health care, the cost of living and immigration, to about two-to-one on Iraq and crime.

In addition to their strong support for Obama, Latino voters have moved sharply into the Democratic camp in the past two years, reversing a pro-GOP tide that had been evident among Latinos earlier in the decade. Some 65% of Latino registered voters now say they identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, compared with just 26% who identify with or lean toward the GOP. This 39 percentage point Democratic Party identification edge is larger than it has been at any time this decade; as recently as 2006, the partisan gap was just 21 percentage points.

The movement to the Democrats appears driven in part by an overall dissatisfaction with the state of the country—70% of Latino registered voters say the country is going in the wrong direction—and also with a growing view among Latino voters that the Democratic Party is better attuned to the concerns of their community. More than half of Latino registered voters (55%) say this, while just 6% say the Republican Party is more concerned about Latinos.

Also, some 78% of Latino registered voters say they are following the election very closely or somewhat closely this year, up from the 72% who said the same thing at this stage of the 2004 campaign. These poll findings, coming on the heels of a spirited Obama-Clinton nomination fight that led to rises in the Latino share of the vote in many Democratic primaries, suggest that the Hispanic community is politically energized heading into the fall election campaign. Hispanics are one of the most sought-after voting groups in the 2008 election— not so much because of their absolute numerical strength (they comprise about 15% of the total U.S. population but only 9% of the eligible electorate), but because of their strategic placement on the Electoral College map. At least four states where Hispanics are heavily concentrated—Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada—are expected to be battlegrounds in the presidential campaign.

Beyond this particular election, one of the key long-term political goals of the Bush administration during the past eight years has been to make the Republican Party competitive among Hispanics—a group that is already the nation’s largest minority and that, by 2050, will comprise 29% of the nation’s population, according to projections by the Pew Hispanic Center.

In 2004, Bush captured 40% of the Latino vote,¹ a record for a GOP presidential candidate and roughly double the 21% that Republican presidential nominee Robert Dole had received in 1996. But in the 2006 congressional campaign, GOP candidates received only 30% of the Latino vote. In short, Latinos are a fastgrowing community that is strategically situated in presidential elections and that has a recent history of moving its support across party lines.

This report is based on a bilingual telephone survey of a nationally representative sample of 2,015 Hispanics ages 18 and older, 892 of whom report being registered to vote. Interviews were conducted from June 9 through July 13, 2008. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level; for registered voters, the margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. For a full description of the survey methodology, see Appendix 1.

Key Findings in this Report:

• Among Hispanic registered voters, 66% would vote for, or lean toward voting for, Barack Obama; 23% would vote for, or lean toward, John McCain.
• More than three-quarters (76%) of Hispanic registered voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, and 73% have a favorable opinion of Hillary Rodham Clinton. In contrast, 44% of Hispanics have a favorable opinion of McCain and 27% have a favorable opinion of George W. Bush.
• More than three-in-four Hispanics who voted for Clinton in a Democratic primary or caucus this year say they would vote for Obama or lean toward voting for him, while 8% of Clinton voters say they would vote for McCain or lean toward voting for him.
• Latino registered voters are almost three times as likely to say that being black will help Obama (32%) with Hispanic voters than hurt him (11%); the majority (53%) say his race will make no difference. • More Latino registered voters say that being white will hurt McCain (24%) than say it will help him (12%); the majority (58%) say his race will make no difference.
• Family and pocketbook issues, such as education (93%), the cost of living (92%), jobs (91%) and health care (90%), are most important to Hispanic registered voters. Fewer Hispanics say that crime (82%), the war in Iraq (75%) or immigration (75%) is an extremely important or very important issue to them personally.
• By a ratio of more than three-to-one, Hispanic registered voters believe that Obama would do a better job than McCain in dealing with education (66% versus 18%), jobs (65% versus 19%), the cost of living (64% versus 19%), health care (64% versus 19%) and immigration (59% versus 19%). They also believe, by a ratio of about two-to-one, that Obama would do a better job than McCain on crime (50% versus 26%) and the war in Iraq (58% versus 27%).
• Among Latino registered voters, 55% believe Obama is better for Hispanics, 11% believe McCain is better and 29% say there is no difference between the candidates.
• Half of all Latino voters (50%) believe Obama is better for immigrants, 12% believe McCain is better and 32% say there is no difference between the candidates.
• More than two-thirds (70%) of Latino registered voters are dissatisfied with the country’s direction. In contrast, 27% of Latino voters are satisfied with how things are going in the country.
• Nearly four-in-ten (38%) Hispanic voters say that Latinos’ situation in the country has gotten worse in the past year, compared with just 18% who say it has improved.
• More than half of Latino voters (55%) say that the Democratic Party is better for Latinos while just 6% say the Republican Party is better for Latinos.
• Hispanic voters increasingly identify with the Democratic Party. Among Latino registered voters who identify with either political party or who say they lean toward a party, Democrats now hold a 39 percentage point advantage—larger than at any time in the past decade—with 65% of registered voters identifying as or leaning toward the Democrats, and 26% identifying as or leaning toward the Republicans.
• Latino voters are following the presidential campaign more closely than in 2004. This year, 78% of Hispanic registered voters say they are following the presidential race very closely or somewhat closely, compared with 72% who said that at a similar time in the 2004 race.
• About one-in-seven Latino voters (15%) say they contributed money to a candidate running for public office in the past year. Half of those who contributed money to a candidate say they did so using the Internet.
• Among Hispanic registered voters, more than half (56%) say that they voted in a presidential primary or caucus this year. Almost three-quarters (72%) say they voted in a Democratic contest, and 21% say they did so in a Republican contest.

About this Report

The 2008 National Survey of Latinos focuses on Hispanic registered voters’ views on the presidential candidates, the presidential campaign and Hispanic political participation. The survey was conducted from June 9 through July 13, 2008 among a randomly selected, nationally representative sample of 2,015 Hispanic adults, 892 of whom report that they are U.S. citizens and registered to vote. The survey was conducted in both English and Spanish. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points; for registered voters, 4.4 percentage points.

A Note on Terminology

The terms “Latino” and “Hispanic” are used interchangeably in this report, as are the terms “foreign born” and “immigrant.”

The terms “whites,” “blacks” and “Asians” are used to refer to the non-Hispanic components of their population.

Election Facts About Puerto Rico

• Residents of Puerto Rico nominate delegates to the Democratic and Republican presidential conventions but they cannot vote for president in the general election.
• Puerto Rico has one non-voting U.S. Congressional Representative.
• The Republican Party’s presidential caucus in Puerto Rico was on February 24, 2008. It drew a small number of participants – fewer than a thousand, according to unofficial tallies.
• The major political parties in Puerto Rico are the New Progressive Party (PNP), which supports U.S. statehood for Puerto Rico, the Popular Democratic Party (PPD), which supports enhanced commonwealth status, the Puerto Rican Independence Party (PIP), which supports Puerto Rican independence from the U.S., the National Democratic Party, and the National Republican Party of Puerto Rico.
• The last day to register to vote for the June 1, 2008 election in Puerto Rico was May 2, 2008. According to the State Electoral Commission of Puerto Rico, there were 2,366,674 registered voters by May 2.⁴
• Voter participation in Puerto Rican elections has traditionally been high. In 2004, according to the State Electoral Commission, 82% of registered voters cast a vote in the November Puerto Rican general election for state and local offices as well as the non-voting representative to the U.S. Congress.⁵
• For more information on Puerto Rico’s government and political system, see https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rq.html#Govt.

Characteristics of Puerto Rico’s Eligible Voter Population

• Puerto Rican eligible voters are older than U.S. Hispanic eligible voters, but similar in their age distribution to all eligible voters in the U.S.
• 23% of Puerto Rican eligible voters are ages 18 to 29. In contrast, 31% of U.S. Latino eligible voters, and 22% of all U.S. eligible voters are in that age range.
• 25% of Puerto Rican eligible voters are ages 60 and older. In comparison, 15% of U.S. Latino eligible voters and 24% of all U.S. eligible voters are ages 60 and older.
• Puerto Rican eligible voters are less likely to have completed high school than are U.S. Latino eligible voters. 32% of Puerto Rican eligible voters have not completed high school, a larger share than the 27% of all U.S. Latino and 14% of all U.S. eligible voters who have not completed high school.
• Puerto Rican eligible voters are more likely to have a Bachelor’s degree or graduate education than are U.S. Hispanic eligible voters. 19% of Puerto Rican eligible voters have completed a bachelor’s degree or more, a larger share than the 13% of U.S. Latino eligible voters who have completed a bachelor’s degree or more.
• Puerto Rican eligible voters are less likely than U.S. Latino and all U.S. eligible voters to have children younger than 18 living in their home. 25% of Puerto Rican eligible voters have children in their home, compared with 33% of U.S. Hispanic and 27% of all U.S. eligible voters.
• 78% of Puerto Rican eligible voters live in owner-occupied homes compared with 60% of U.S. Latino eligible voters and 71% of all U.S. eligible voters nationwide.
• Puerto Rican eligible voters have much less income than U.S. Latino and all U.S. eligible voters. More than six in ten (61%) Puerto Rican eligible voters report a household income below $30,000. However, Puerto Rico’s economy, income levels and cost of living are different from that of the United States, so direct comparisons of these economic indicators may be somewhat misleading. For more information on the Puerto Rican economy, see https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rq.html#Econ.

Hispanics voted for Sen. Hillary Clinton over Sen. Barack Obama by a margin of nearly two-to-one in the race for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, according to an analysis by the Pew Hispanic Center of exit polls taken throughout the primary season. The Center’s analysis also finds a sharp increase in Latino electoral participation in 2008, with their share of the Democratic primary vote rising in 16 of the 19 states for which exit polling makes it possible to compare 2008 and 2004 turnout shares.

Latino voters were especially important to Clinton in the mega-states California and Texas, where their share of the primary vote rose dramatically between 2004 and 2008. In California, Latino voters comprised 30% of the turnout (up from 16% in 2004) and in Texas, Latino voters comprised 32% of the turnout (up from 24% in 2004). Clinton would have lost both states were it not for the strong support she received from Latinos.

This report examines the turnout, demographic characteristics, opinions and voting patterns of the Latino electorate in Democratic primaries and caucuses held in 2008.¹ Where possible, it draws comparisons and contrasts among Latino, black and white voting patterns. It also compares Latino turnout in 2008 with turnout in 2004. The report is based on an analysis of Super Tuesday exit polling data about Latinos that the Pew Hispanic Center received on a contractual basis from Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International, the firm that conducts exit poll surveys for the National Election Pool, a national consortium of media organizations. It also utilizes tabulations from exit polls made publicly available by CNN for a number of states whose primaries were not on Super Tuesday.

Key findings in this report:

• In a year when the turnout in the Democratic primaries and caucuses has risen sharply across the board, Latinos made up a growing share of the turnout in 16 of the 19 states for which exit polling permits a comparison between 2008 and 2004. The most noteworthy increases came in California and Texas. In California, Latinos were 30% of all Democratic primary voters on Feb. 5, compared with their 16% share in 2004. In Texas, Latinos were 32% of all Democratic primary voters on March 4, compared with their 24% share in 2004.
• Latinos in the Democratic primaries have shown a heavy preference for Clinton, supporting her over Obama in the Super Tuesday primaries 63% to 35%, in the Texas primary 66% to 32%, and in the Puerto Rico primary 68% to 32%.²
• Hispanic voters in the Super Tuesday Democratic primaries were markedly younger than voters in other racial and ethnic groups. More than one-in-five Hispanic voters on Super Tuesday were ages 17 to 29, and more than half of all Hispanic voters were younger than 45. By comparison, just one-third of white voters in the Super Tuesday Democratic primaries were younger than 45.
• Hispanic men and women of all ages, educational levels and incomes voted for Clinton over Obama on Super Tuesday. For example, younger Hispanics (ages 17 to 29) voted heavily for Clinton (62%) over Obama (37%) on Feb. 5, in contrast to their counterparts among whites and blacks.
• On Super Tuesday, Hispanics were more likely than whites to say that race was an important factor in deciding their vote—28% of Hispanics said this compared with 13% of whites. However, Hispanics who said that race was important voted for Clinton by about the same percentage (64%) as did Hispanics who said race was not important (63%). By contrast, whites who said race was important were more likely to vote for Clinton than were other whites. And blacks who said race was important (29% of all black voters) were more likely to vote for Obama than were other blacks—87% did, compared with 80% of blacks who said race was not important.
• Latinos were also more likely than whites to say that a candidate’s gender was important in their voting decisions on Super Tuesday. Latinos for whom gender was important were more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton than those who said gender was not important.
• A majority of Hispanic voters on Super Tuesday (53%) said that the economy is the most important issue facing the country, a greater share than that of white voters who said the same thing (45%).

About this Report

The exit poll data used in this report come from the Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International National Election Pool Entrance and Exit Poll Surveys of voters in states that have held primaries and caucuses this year. Data for the analysis of voters in the 16 Democratic primaries held on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, 2008, were provided to the Pew Hispanic Center on a contractual basis by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International. These 16 exit polls were aggregated and weighted into a single dataset for Hispanic, white non-Hispanic and black non-Hispanic voters. The sample size for the aggregated Hispanic voter dataset was 1,809 survey respondents. The sample size for the white non-Hispanic voter dataset was 11,558. And the size for the black non-Hispanic voter dataset was 3,120. The 16 states included in this aggregated analysis are Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah. All other analysis from entrance and exit polls conducted by Edison/Mitofsky in non-Super Tuesday states, including Texas, comes from tabulations made publicly available by CNN. Results from Puerto Rico are based on complete vote tallies published by the Puerto Rico State Electoral Commission.

A Note on Terminology

The terms “Latino” and “Hispanic” are used interchangeably in this report. References to “whites” and “blacks” are to the non-Hispanic components of those populations.

In Tuesday’s primary in Texas, Clinton’s winning margin of votes among Latinos was nearly three times as great as her overall statewide lead in votes. Calculations based on exit poll data show that Obama carried Texas by 55% to 44% among all non-Latino voters. However, Latinos accounted for 32% of votes cast in the Texas primary, up from 24% in 2004. They favored Clinton over Obama by 66% to 32%.

In the Feb. 5 primary in California, Clinton’s winning margin of votes among Latinos was slightly larger than her statewide tally over Obama. Based on calculations made using exit poll data, the vote for Clinton and Obama among all non-Latino voters was a statistical dead heat of 46% to 46%. However, Hispanics made up 30% of the Democratic primary electorate in California, up from 16% in the 2004 Democratic primary. They favored Clinton over Obama by 67% to 32%.

In a tight race, Clinton won New Mexico by only one percentage point. Among Hispanics, however, her winning margin of votes was nine times as great as her overall statewide vote lead. Non-Hispanics voted for Obama 56% to 41%. In contrast, Hispanics favored Clinton 62% to 36%, and they were 35% of all voters.

In several other states, the Hispanic contribution to Clinton victories was not as pivotal as it was in Texas, California and New Mexico, but it was significant nonetheless. Latinos accounted for 20% or more of Clinton’s winning margin in three of the four other states for which the Hispanic vote can be reliably estimated based on exit poll results—Arizona, Florida and New Jersey.

Clinton may have won all of these states even if Latinos had not turned out in such large numbers and had not favored her by such lopsided margins. But her margin of victory would have been smaller, as would the number of delegates she garnered.

In Illinois, the only state with a large Hispanic electorate that Clinton has not won, Hispanics gave their support narrowly to their home-state senator. Obama carried the Hispanic vote in Illinois by one percentage point, compared with his overall victory margin of 32 percentage points.

As the rest of the primary season unfolds, Hispanics will play a lesser role because they do not constitute a major share of the eligible voters in any of the remaining states. However, on June 1 voters in Puerto Rico will choose their 55 pledged delegates and Latinos will comprise virtually the entire electorate in that contest. Also, if there is a revote in Florida and Michigan—as some Democratic Party leaders are now urging—Hispanics are poised to play a significant role in Florida, where they accounted for 12% of the turnout in a January 29 primary that produced no delegates because of an intra-party dispute over the timing of the contest. In that January vote, Latinos in Florida favored Clinton over Obama by 59% to 30%.

Hispanics in North Carolina’s Eligible Voter Population

• North Carolina’s population is 7% Hispanic, ranking 25th in the Hispanic population share nationally. New Mexico ranks first with 45%.
• Almost 2% of eligible voters in North Carolina are Latinos, the 35th largest Hispanic eligible voter population share nationally. New Mexico is first at 38%.
• Approximately 20% of Latinos in North Carolina are eligible to vote, ranking last nationwide in the share of the Hispanic population that is eligible to vote.

Characteristics of Eligible Voters

• North Carolina’s Hispanic eligible voters are younger than all eligible voters in North Carolina—36% of Hispanic eligible voters in North Carolina are ages 18 to 29 versus 21% of all North Carolina eligible voters.
• Latino eligible voters in North Carolina are much more likely to be naturalized citizens than are all North Carolina eligible voters—31% versus 2%. They are also more likely to be naturalized than are all Latino eligible voters nationwide (26%).
• The proportion of Hispanic eligible voters in North Carolina who have attended college or earned at least a bachelor’s degree is less than the proportion of all North Carolina eligible voters who have this level of education—45% of Hispanics versus 53% of all eligible voters in North Carolina. They do have a higher level of education than all Hispanic eligible voters nationwide, only 41% of whom have attended college or earned a bachelor’s degree or more.
• Latino eligible voters in North Carolina are less likely to live in an owner-ohome than all eligible voters in North Carolina—53% versus 71%.

Characteristics of Eligible Voters in North Carolina, by Race and Ethnicity

• Black eligible voters outnumber Latino eligible voters in North Carolina by a margin of nearly 11 to 1—1.3 million blacks compared with 120,000 Latino eligible voters.
• Hispanic eligible voters are younger than white or black eligible voters in North Carolina—36% of Hispanic eligible voters are ages 18 to 29 compared with 19% of white and 25% of black eligible voters.
• Hispanic eligible voters (45%) and black eligible voters (42%) are less likely than white eligible voters (56%) to have attended college.
• Hispanic eligible voters (53%) and black eligible voters (53%) are less likely than white eligible voters (77%) in North Carolina to live in owner-occupied homes.

Hispanics in Pennsylvania’s Eligible Voter Population

• Pennsylvania’s population is 4% Hispanic, ranking 33rd in the Hispanic population share nationally. New Mexico ranks first with 45%.
• Almost 3% of eligible voters in Pennsylvania are Latinos, the 27th largest Hispanic eligible voter population share nationally. New Mexico ranks first with 38%.
• Half of all Latinos in Pennsylvania are eligible to vote, ranking 11th nationwide in the share of the Hispanic population that is eligible to vote.

Characteristics of Eligible Voters

• Pennsylvania’s Hispanic eligible voters are younger than all eligible voters in Pennsylvania—31% of Hispanic eligible voters in Pennsylvania are ages 18 to 29 versus 20% of all Pennsylvania eligible voters.
• Latino eligible voters in Pennsylvania are more likely to be naturalized citizens than are all Pennsylvania eligible voters—12% versus 3%. However, they are less likely to be naturalized than are all Latino eligible voters nationwide (26%).
• The proportion of Hispanic eligible voters in Pennsylvania who have attended college or earned at least a bachelor’s degree is less than the proportion of all Pennsylvania eligible voters who have that level of education—34% of Hispanics versus 48% of all eligible voters in Pennsylvania. Hispanic eligible voters in Pennsylvania also have a lower level of education than all Hispanic eligible voters nationwide, 41% of whom have attended college or earned a bachelor’s degree or more.
• Latino eligible voters in Pennsylvania are less likely to live in an owner-occupied home than all eligible voters in Pennsylvania—51% versus 74%.

Characteristics of Eligible Voters in Pennsylvania, by Race and Ethnicity

• Black eligible voters outnumber Latino eligible voters in Pennsylvania by a margin of more than 3 to 1—862,0blacks compared with 261,000 Latino eligible voters.
• Hispanic eligible voters are younger than white or black eligible voters in Pennsylvania—31% of Hispanic eligible voters are ages 18 to 29 compared with 18% of white and 24% of black eligible voters.
• Hispanic eligible voters are less likely than other groups of eligible voters to have attended college—34% versus 49% for white and 39% for black eligible voters.
• Hispanic eligible voters (51%) and black eligible voters (52%) are less likely than white eligible voters (77%) in Pennsylvania to reside in owner-occupied homes.