Latinos¹ made up a slightly larger share of the total voter turnout in the mid-term election of 2006 than they had in the mid-term election of 2002, according to a Pew Hispanic Center analysis of new U.S. Census data.

However, during those same four years the growth of the Latino vote continued to lag well behind the growth of the Latino population. This widening gap is driven by two key demographic trends: a high percentage of the new Hispanics in the population are either too young to vote or ineligible because they are not citizens (Figure 1).²

As a result, while Latinos represented nearly half the total population growth in the U.S. between 2002 and 2006, the Latino share among all new eligible voters was just 20%. By comparison, whites accounted for 24% of the population growth and 47% of all eligible new voters.

About 5.6 million Hispanics voted in the 2006 mid-term election, which historically draws far fewer voters than the quadrennial race for president. Latinos accounted for 5.8% of all votes cast, up from 5.3% in 2002. That increase was largely a function of demographic growth.

Latinos historically lag behind whites and blacks in registration (percent among all eligible voters) and voting (percent of registered voters who actually cast ballots). In 2006, the pro-immigration rallies held in many cities raised expectations that political participation among Latinos would also increase.

Census data shows a marginal increase in registration and participation rates among Latinos between 2002 and 2006. Whites, however, also experienced a slight gain, so Latinos did not close the considerable gap. About 54% of Latino eligible voters registered in 2006, up from 53% in 2002. About 60% of these registered voters said they actually voted in 2006, up from 58% in 2002.

By contrast, 71% of white eligible voters registered in 2006, two percentage points higher than in 2002. About 72% of these registered voters said they voted in last year’s mid-term elections, one percentage point higher than in 2002.

The shares of blacks who registered and voted declined from 2002 to 2006. Registration rates decreased by two percentage points, to 61%, and voting by one percentage point, to 67%.

The combination of demographic factors and participation rates meant that 13% of the total Latino population voted in 2006, compared with 39% of all whites and 27% of all blacks. Among all Hispanics and whites, the 2006 turnout represented a slight increase over 2002 (1 and 2 percentage points, respectively) while it remained unchanged for blacks.

This fact sheet is based on data from a supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) that is conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau every November of an election year. The survey asks whether individuals were registered to vote and whether they actually voted but does not probe for party or candidate preferences.

Counting the Vote

The vote totals in this fact sheet are based on a supplement of the Current Population Survey that is conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau every November in an election year. The supplement, which includes voter registration and voting information, is an authoritative source of information on voter turnout (see Appendix).

The CPS count is based on self-reports by respondents. In mid-term elections, there is a difference between the CPS count and other published ballot counts. For example, the November 2006 CPS indicates that 96.1 million persons reported voting in the 2006 national election. Rhodes Cook, another authority on the count, reports the total as 83.8 million. That report is based on the “highest race” ballot tally for each state, or the ballot count from the highest office contested in the election.

The discrepancy between the Rhodes estimate and the CPS is 12.4 million votes, or about 15%. It reflects a combination of an understatement in the ballot count and an overestimate in the CPS (U.S. Census Bureau, 2002).

Demographics

The Hispanic population grew by 5.7 million between November 2002 and November 2006, the time period that frames the two elections. Hispanics accounted for nearly half of the total population growth.

A majority of these new Latinos were not eligible to vote. More than a third were under 18 years of age and another third were adult non-citizens (Table 1). About 30% were eligible to vote.

Whites, by contrast, accounted for 24% of the population growth between 2002 and 2006 but 46% of the growth in the voting eligible population. Among whites, the number under 18 and the number who were not citizens also declined during this period. As a result, the increase in the number of white eligible voters (3.9 million) exceeded the growth in the white population (2.8 million).

Going to the Polls

Hispanics accounted for 5.8% of the votes cast in 2006, up from 5.3% vote in 2002. In absolute numbers, an additional 800,000 Hispanics cast ballots in the 2006 election compared with the 2002 election.

Whites accounted for 81% of the votes in 2006, unchanged from 2002. In absolute numbers, an additional 5.6 million whites cast ballots in the 2006 election compared with the 2002 election. Blacks accounted for 10% of the votes in 2006, down from about 11% in 2002. The black vote increased by 400,000 in 2006.

The 5.6 million votes cast by Hispanics in 2006 represented 13% of the total Hispanic population. The 9.9 million votes cast by black represented 27% of the black population and the 78 million votes cast by whites represented 39% of the white population (Table 2).

The Latino electorate was a much smaller share of the Latino population than it was among whites and blacks. In November 2006, 39% of Hispanics were eligible to vote compared to 76% of whites and 65% of blacks (Table 3).

Participation Rates

Hispanics who are eligible to vote are less likely to register and less likely to cast a vote than either whites or blacks.

About 54% of Hispanics who were eligible to vote registered in November 2006. Among whites and blacks, the figure was 71% and 61%, respectively. (Table 4). Registration rates increased slightly among Hispanics and whites between the two elections but decreased among blacks.

Latinos who registered to vote were less likely to vote in November 2006 than whites and blacks who were registered. Among registered Latinos, 60% voted in November 2006 compared with 72% among white registered voters and 67% among black registered voters.

The turnout among Latinos increased slightly from 2002 to 2006, as it did among whites. Among blacks, however, the turnout decreased by one percentage point between the two elections (68% in 2002 and 67% in 2006).

Foreign-born Hispanics who were registered to vote in 2006 were more likely to report voting than their native-born counterparts (67% vs. 58%).

Characteristics of the Hispanic Population and Electorate

In November 2006, about four-in-ten Hispanics were eligible to vote. These eligible voters were distinct in many ways when compared with the entire Hispanic adult population (Table 5).

By a significant majority (89%), Latinos who were eligible to vote were not in households where only Spanish is spoken. By comparison, among all Latino adults about one-in-four (25%) were in households where only Spanish is spoken.

The Hispanic electorate was also older and more female when compared with all Hispanic adults. In November 2006, 30% of Hispanics eligible to vote were age 50 or older compared with 24% among all Hispanic adults.

Almost three-quarters (74%) of Hispanics eligible to vote were born in the U.S. Among all Hispanic adults, 55% were immigrants.

The Latino electorate was also, on average, better educated when compared with all Latino adults. Almost three quarters (74%) of the Hispanic electorate had completed high school, compared to 61% of all Hispanic adults.

Characteristics of the Non-Hispanic White Population and Electorate

More than three-quarters (76%) of the total white population was eligible to vote in November 2006. Since relatively few white adults were non-citizens (2%), white adults who were eligible to vote were very similar to all white adults (Table 6). More than half of whites, who reported voting (56%) were age 50 or older, compared with 45% among all white adults.

However, white voters were more affluent than those who did not vote. About two-thirds (62%) reported family incomes of $50,000 or more, compared to more than half among all white adults (55%). White voters were also better educated than those who did not vote. Almost 4-in-10 (38%) had finished college, compared with 29% among all white adults.

Characteristics of the Non-Hispanic Black Population and Electorate

About 65% of the total black population was eligible to vote in November 2006. About 1.3 million adult blacks were not eligible to vote because they were not U.S. citizens.

The black electorate in many ways reflects the characteristics of the wider adult black population (Table 7). But as was the case among whites, there were some differences between black voters and all black adults. In November 2006, black voters were more female, for example. About 40% of black voters reported a family income of $50,000 or more, compared to 33% among all black adults. Black voters were also more likely to have finished college (26%) than all black adults (18%).

This year, interest in the Latino vote was driven in great part by the immigration debate and its possible effects on the election. Would Latinos punish the Republicans for the immigration position held by restrictionist hardliners in that party? Would the Democrats benefit as a result?

Exit polls, which are conducted on election day on behalf of a consortium of news organizations, can help guide the answers to these questions. And, indeed, some have looked at the numbers and concluded that the immigration debate was central to the Latino vote and that it hurt the Republican Party. But the same exit polls also indicate that the shift to the Democrats may not have been as dramatic as it seemed at first glance. And while Democrats may have benefited from the Latino vote, several prominent Republican candidates received a relatively large share of the Hispanic vote.

The 2006 national exit poll showed that in elections for the U.S. House of Representatives 69% of Latinos voted for Democrats and 30% for Republicans. An analysis of exit polls in Senate and gubernatorial races around the country that produced a national estimate revealed essentially the same partisan preference. Meanwhile, exit polls conducted in eight states with large Hispanic populations by the William C. Velazquez Institute, a non-partisan think tank, estimated that Latino voters favored Democrats 67% to 29% in congressional races nationwide.

These exit poll results suggests a very substantial gain for the Democrats this year if you compare those numbers to what the exit polls showed in the 2004 presidential race. At that time, the national exit poll showed that President George W. Bush received 44% of the Latino vote. However, serious questions have been raised about the Hispanic sample in that survey. A Pew Hispanic Center analysis of individual exit polls conducted in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, which taken together had a much larger and more representative Latino sample, showed that Bush took 40% of the Hispanic vote. (See Hispanics and the 2004 Election: Population, Electorate and Voters.)

Comparing exit polls from 2004 and 2006 suggests an 11-point swing in favor of the Democrats. Meanwhile, the swing among white voters was 6%. That suggests the movement away from the GOP was greater among Latinos than whites. The change among black voters, who consistently back Democrats by an overwhelming majority, was much more modest. The 2004-2006 comparison suggests something distinctive occurred among Latino voters this year that rewarded the Democrats and punished the Republicans.

The 2002 and 2004 Mid-term Elections

The 2002 mid-term elections offer another point of comparison. That year, the national exit poll showed that Latinos went 61% vs. 37% in favor of the Democrats while whites split 38% to 57% in favor of the Republicans, as has been consistent in recent elections. Comparing this year’s mid-term election to the 2002 mid-term election shows that the Democratic gains among Latinos and whites were roughly similar. The 2002/2006 comparison suggests that Latino voters this year did not behave distinctively but rather reflected a broader political trend that was also evident among whites.

After the 2004 election, some Republican strategists argued that Bush’s strong showing among Latinos that year could lead to a political realignment that would gradually erode the Democrats long-standing two-to-one advantage in party identification among Hispanic voters. Meanwhile, other analysts contended that the 2004 election only demonstrated that, under the right circumstances, an individual Republican candidate can reduce the Democratic advantage without producing any lasting change in Hispanic voting behavior.

The Latino Split

An analysis of exit polls in several races this year shows that some Republican candidates in states with sizeable Latino electorates significantly out performed their party’s showing on the national level and received shares of the Hispanic vote comparable to Bush in 2004. Indeed, in many cases Latinos evidently split their ballots between Democrats and Republicans.

In California, which is home to more than a quarter of all Latino voters in the country, Democrat Dianne Feinstein easily won reelection to the Senate, receiving 71% of the Latino vote. Meanwhile, Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, won reelection as governor with 39% backing from Hispanics. Black voters in California proved a more reliable Democratic constituency, giving Schwarzenegger only 27%.

In Texas, Republican incumbent Kay Bailey Hutchinson won reelection to the Senate in a landslide and received 44% of the Hispanic vote. But as in California, blacks went more solidly Democratic, giving Hutchinson 26%. In Nevada, Republican Jim Gibbons won the race for governor against Democrat Dina Titus, receiving 37% of the Latino vote and just 13% of the black vote.

Arizona, where Latinos account for 17% of eligible voters, was widely viewed as a test case on voter sentiments towards immigration. Two Republican candidates for the House, Randy Graff and J.D. Hayworth, who made promises to crack down on illegal immigration the centerpiece of their campaigns, were defeated in districts that had been considered relatively safe for Republicans. Governor Janet Napolitano, a Democrat, won reelection with 67% of the Latino vote, about the same share Democrats received nationally in House races.

But amid these successes for the Democrats in Arizona, Republican Jon Kyl easily won reelection to the Senate. Kyl played a prominent role in the Senate debate over immigration policy last spring, emphasizing tougher enforcement measures and working hard against proposals that would have offered a legalization program for undocumented immigrants. He carried 41% of the Hispanic vote, according to the exit polls, a share comparable to Bush’s in the 2004 election.

As important, almost half of Latino voters (48%) in Arizona also backed the referendum that made English the state’s official language. Among all voters in Arizona, that measure drew overwhelming support from those who said illegal immigration was extremely important and from those who said illegal immigrants should be deported. Again, almost one out of every two Latinos sided with an issue that was heavily promoted by those in favor of a more restrictive immigration policy.

Impact of the Latino Vote on House and Senate Races

The Democrats scored a major victory on a national level with a net gain of 30 seats in the House of Representatives, giving them control for the first time since 1994. What role did Latino’s play in that outcome? Did the Latino 11% shift in favor of the Democrats help swing the tide in key races?

One way to assess the impact of Latinos’ shift in favor of the Democrats is to look at closely contested congressional districts. There were 75 congressional races where the winner received 55% of the vote or less, but most of those took place in districts where Latinos are a small share of the electorate. Thus, simple geography greatly limited the potential impact of the Hispanic vote.

Latinos made up 10% or more of the eligible voters in only 12 of these 75 races and were more than 20% in only one. Republican incumbents prevailed in 8 of the 12 close races in which Latinos conceivably could have played a decisive role. Among these was the one closely-contested race in which Latinos represented a sizeable share of the electorate. In New Mexico’s 1st district, where Hispanics made up 38% of the eligible voters, Heather Wilson, the Republican incumbent, narrowly defeated Patricia Madrid, the state’s attorney general and a Hispanic.

The four remaining races were won by Democrats. In California’s 11th district, where Hispanics are 16% of eligible voters, a Republican incumbent was defeated. In the other three— the Colorado 7th with 16% Latino eligible voters, the Texas 22nd with 17% Latino eligible voters and the Arizona 8th with 15% Latino eligible voters — Democrats won open seats that had been previously held by Republicans.

In sum, close races in which Latinos made up 10% or more of the electorate produced a net gain of four seats for the Democrats.

Another way of assessing the impact of the Latino vote is to look at the 30 House seats picked up by the Democrats. Geography again limited the Hispanic role. On average, Latinos make up 4.5% of the eligible voters in those 30 districts. In 18 of the turnover districts Latinos made up less than 2% of the electorate. Latinos made up 10% or more of the voters in four districts that produced a net Democratic gain, the same four districts decided in close races noted above.

Finally, the impact of the Latino vote can be assessed by examining the outcome in Congressional districts with large shares of Hispanic eligible voters. This year Latinos made up 30% or more of the eligible voters in 35 districts. The Hispanic share of eligible voters in those districts ranged from 31% to 75% of the total, so a substantial swing among those Latino voters could have a decisive impact. More than a third (36%) of all Latino voters live in those districts. Again the impact was reduced by geography and the nature of the congressional redistricting process, which tends favors incumbents and often concentrates minority voters in relatively few districts. Democratic incumbents carried 28 of those races and Republican incumbents won the remaining 7. The 35 districts with the densest concentrations of Latino voters did not produce any turnover of seats in the House.

The 60 Congressional districts with the largest concentrations of Hispanic voters show the same result. These districts, which are home to half of all Latino voters, did not produce any turnover of seats.

The Democrats took control of the Senate by winning six seats previously held by Republicans. These races took place in states with relatively small shares of Latino voters: Rhode Island (5.4%), Virginia (2.7%), Pennsylvania (2.7%), Montana (1.8%), Missouri (1.5%) and Ohio (1.5%).

Among other closely watched Senate races, Latinos are a sizeable presence only in Connecticut and New Jersey.

In Connecticut, where Hispanics are 7.7% of all voters, the exit polls showed Hispanics favoring Ned Lamont, the Democratic nominee, by 58% to 32% over Joe Lieberman, the Democratic incumbent who ran as an independent after losing the Democratic primary. Lieberman won the election with a 10-point margin.
In New Jersey, where Hispanics are 10.2% of all eligible voters, the exit polls showed Hispanics favoring Robert Menendez, the Democratic incumbent, by 71% to 28% over the Republican candidate, Thomas Kean, Jr. In contrast, Sen. John Kerry took 56% of the Latino vote in New Jersey in his 2004 presidential campaign. After a hard fought campaign, Menendez won handily, 53% to 45%.

How many Latinos voted?

Determining how many Latinos turned out to vote and comparing levels of participation from one election to another is complicated. Latinos made up 8.6% of the nation’s eligible voters this year, according to the Center’s estimates. (See Hispanics and the 2006 Election.) That is a small enough share of the total vote that a relatively small deviation in the way turnout is allocated among various racial and ethnic groups could produce a very substantial shift in the number of ballots cast by Latino voters.

For example, a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5% in the race/ethnic allocation of votes in the 2004 presidential election would produce a range of estimates for Latino turnout of roughly between 5.7 million and 9.5 million votes. Exit polls also offer varying estimates of the distribution of votes along racial and ethnic lines. In 2004, the national exit poll showed that Latinos accounted for 8.4% of the vote while the state exit polls placed the estimate at 7.5%.

This year, the national exit poll calculated that Hispanics accounted for 8% of all votes cast in elections for the House of Representatives. Meanwhile, the William C. Velazquez Institute surveys estimated the Latino turnout was 6.2% of the total. Further analysis may show that there is a reliable estimate to be drawn somewhere between those two numbers, but at this writing it is very difficult to calculate with confidence how many votes were cast by Latinos.

This fact sheet presents estimates for the number of Hispanics who will be U.S. citizens and at least 18 years old and thus eligible to vote as of November 2006. Also presented are estimates of the number of eligible voters who will have registered to vote based on several scenarios that weigh changes in the population and potential levels of political participation. The fact sheet includes tables on Hispanics and their eligibility to vote by state, congressional district and nationwide.

The Size of the Latino Electorate

The Pew Hispanic Center estimates that more than 17 million Hispanics will be U.S. citizens over the age of 18 and thus eligible to vote in the November 2006 election, an increase of 7% over the 2004 election. The Hispanic share of the U.S. electorate will increase to 8.6% from 8.2% in 2004.

Estimates of the size of the Hispanic electorate for states and congressional districts are in the appendix tables. See the methodology section for a description of the data sources and methods used to develop the estimates.

The terms Latino and Hispanic are used interchangeably. The terms white, black and Asian refer to non-Hispanics.

For a full discussion of the demography of the Hispanic electorate see “Hispanics and the 2004 Election: Population, Electorate and Voters” Pew Hispanic Center, June, 2005.

The Size of the Latino Electorate

The native born constitute the largest share of the Hispanic electorate, an estimated 12.9 million eligible voters, or 75% of the total. Naturalized citizens (the foreign-born who have acquired U.S. citizenship) are estimated to number 4.3 million, or 25% of the total.

The fastest growth in the Hispanic electorate is from native-born Latinos, specifically those in the second generation (U.S. born with at least one foreign-born parent). The number of second-generation Latinos of voting age grew by about 524,000 between 2004 and 2006, accounting for 46% of the increase in the Hispanic electorate.

The number of naturalized citizens of voting age increased by 317,000, or 28% of the growth. Latinos in the third plus generations (U.S. born of U.S-born parents) account for the largest nativity category in the Hispanic electorate (48%) but the smallest share of the growth.

Eligible voters make up a significantly smaller share of the Hispanic population than in other racial/ethnic groups because so many Latinos are either adults who are not citizens or citizens who are not yet of voting age. For example, 39% of Hispanics are eligible voters compared to 77% of whites and 65% of blacks.

Registered Voters

Registration rates vary by age. Young adults of all racial and ethnic groups are less likely to register and less likely to vote than persons who are middle aged and older. Registration rates also vary between native-born and naturalized citizens. Native-born citizens generally have higher rates of participation in elections. However, among Latinos the difference between native and foreign born is not significant.

Using CPS data and population projections based on Census data, the Center has developed the following scenarios for estimating the number of Hispanics that would be registered in November 2006:

First Scenario: Projections based on 2002 voter registration

Assumes that Latinos of different age groups and nativity categories will register at rates seen in 2002, the last mid-term election. At that election, 8.2 million Latinos registered, or 53% of eligible Latino voters, according to the 2002 Current Population Survey. The registration rates for blacks and whites were 63% and 69% respectively.

• If Latinos registered at the same rates as in 2002, then 9.2 million Latino citizens 18 and older would register to vote in 2006. That would represent 53% of eligible Latinos.
• If Latinos registered at the same rates as non-Hispanic blacks did in 2002, then 10.3 million Latinos would register to vote in 2006. That would represent 60% of eligible Latinos.
• If Latinos registered at the same rates as non-Hispanic whites did in 2002, then 10.9 million Latinos would register to vote in 2006. That would represent 63% of eligible Latinos.

Second Scenario: Projections based on 2004 voter registration

Assumes that Latinos of different age groups and nativity categories will register at rates seen in 2004. At that election, 9.3 million Latinos, or 58% of eligible voters, were registered, according to the 2004 Current Population Survey. The registration rates for blacks and whites were 69% and 75% respectively.

• If Latinos registered at the same rate as 2004, then 10.0 million Latino citizens 18 and older would register to vote in 2006. That would represent 58% of eligible Latinos.
• If Latinos registered at the same rate as non-Hispanic blacks did in 2004, then 11.5 million Latinos would register to vote in 2006. That would represent 67% of eligible Latinos.
• If Latinos registered to vote at the same rate as non-Hispanic whites did in 2004, then 12.3 million Latinos would register to vote in 2006. That would represent 71% of eligible Latinos.