Hispanics accounted for half of the population growth in the United States between the elections of 2000 and 2004 but only one-tenth of the increase in the total votes cast, according to a Pew Hispanic Center analysis of new data from the U.S. Census Bureau.¹

This gap between the very substantial growth of the Hispanic population and much more modest growth in Hispanic electoral clout has been developing for a generation but has widened considerably in recent years.

It is primarily the result of the two key demographic factors that distinguish Latinos from whites and blacks in the electoral arena: a high percentage of Hispanics are either too young to vote or are ineligible because they are not citizens.

As a result, a population increase of 5.7 million Latinos between 2000 and 2004 yielded only 2.1 million new eligible voters. In addition, Hispanic voter participation rates lag those of whites or blacks so that the number of Hispanic voters increased by just 1.4 million.

The combination of demographic factors and participation rates meant that 18 percent of the total Latino population (adults as well as children, citizens and non-citizens) went to the polls in 2004, compared with 51 percent of all whites and 39 percent of all blacks.

Despite these factors, however, the Hispanic population has been growing at such a strong rate that it still has led to an increase—albeit a small one—in the Hispanic share of the overall electorate. In November, 2004, Hispanics accounted for 6.0 percent of all votes cast, up from 5.5 percent four years earlier. During this same period, the Hispanic share of the population rose from 12.8 percent in 2000 to 14.3 percent in 2004.

The Hispanic population is not only much larger than the Hispanic electorate but it also differs in some key characteristics, including language usage. The share of Latino adults living in households where only Spanish is spoken is three times higher in the general population than it is among voters.

This report relies primarily on a supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) that is conducted every November of an election year. The CPS is the large monthly survey of U.S. households conducted by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics which is best known as a source of unemployment rates. The November supplements ask whether individuals were registered to vote and whether they actually voted but do not ask which candidates or political parties they supported. Thus, the CPS data does not directly provide any information on how Hispanics voted in the 2004 election.

However, these data shed some new light on a lingering controversy surrounding the extent of Hispanic support for President George W. Bush last year. An analysis of the 2004 exit poll data in conjunction with this new CPS data suggests that Bush’s share of the Hispanic vote last year was probably closer to 40 percent than to the 44 percent widely reported last year by news organizations that had relied on national exit poll data.

Some of the major findings in this report include:

• Between the 2000 and 2004 elections, the Hispanic population grew by 5.7 million, accounting for half of the increase in the U.S. population of 11.5 million.
• Of those 5.7 million Hispanics added to the U.S. population between the last two presidential elections, 1.7 million persons or 30 percent were less than 18 years old and are thus not eligible to vote. Another 1.9 million or 33 percent of the people added to the Hispanic population between the two elections were adults not eligible to vote because they were not citizens.
• As a result of these factors, only 39 percent of the Latino population was eligible to vote compared to 76 percent of whites and 65 percent of the black population.
• Both the number of Latinos registered to vote (9.3 million) and the number of Latinos who cast ballots (7.6 million) in November 2004 marked increases of political participation over the 2000 election that were larger than for any other ethnic or racial group in percentage terms.
• However, both registration and turnout rates for Latinos were lower than for whites or blacks. As a result, only 47 percent of eligible Hispanics went to the polls compared to 67 percent of whites and 60 percent of blacks. Differences in registration rates explain most of the gaps.
• The combination of demographic factors and participation rates meant that only 18 percent of the Latino population voted in 2004 compared to 51 percent of whites and 39 percent of blacks.
• In November 2004, Hispanics were 14.3 percent of the total population but only 6.0 percent of the votes cast. In the previous election, Hispanics were 12.8 percent of the population and 5.5 percent of the votes cast.
• The gap between the size of the Latino adult population and the number of Hispanic voters has been growing since at least 1972 and is likely to continue growing given current trends.
• The foreign-born account for 56 percent of the Latino adult population but only 28 percent of the 2004 voters. As a result, 27 percent of Latino adults live in households where only Spanish is spoken compared to only 9 percent of voters.
• An analysis of census and exit poll data suggests that President Bush took 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004 rather than the 44 percent originally reported from the major news media exit poll.
• Religion appears to be linked to President Bush’s improved showing among Hispanics in 2004 over 2000, when he took 34 percent of Latino votes. Hispanic Protestants made up a larger share of the Latino vote last year (32% in 2004 compared with 25% in 2000), and 56 percent of these voters supported the president in 2004, compared with 44 percent in 2000. The president’s share of the Hispanic Catholic vote remained essentially unchanged between 2000 and 2004.

The November supplements to the CPS, which are the primary source of data for this report, are generally considered an authoritative source of data on the socio-economic characteristics of the electorate. (DeSipio, 2004; Ramakrishnan and Espenshade, 2001; Cassell, 2002.) It is, for example, the only source of information on whether voters are native or foreign-born, which is a critical variable in examining the Hispanic population. Moreover, the November CPS is by far the largest national survey that provides data on the size and characteristics of the full population, eligible voters, registered voters and actual voters.

All surveys are subject to discrepancies due to margins of error and other factors. This is true of the CPS although it is a very large survey regularly conducted of the American public with an average monthly sample of about 140,000 individuals. The November election year supplements of the CPS routinely show a larger number of persons voting than the actual count. So, the November 2004 CPS reports that 125.74 million persons reported voting in the 2004 national election while the official count of votes for the 2004 Presidential contest is 122.28 million in the Federal Register. The discrepancy is 3.5 million votes or about 3 percent of the official count. The CPS supplement is taken after election day and relies on individuals’ self-reporting of their voting behavior. The difference between the CPS and the official count results from two factors: Some people report having voted when they did not, and some ballots do not get counted because the voter did not mark them properly, a voting machine misread them and other reasons (U.S. Census Bureau, 2002). The CPS covers the civilian, noninstitutional population resident in the country. Almost all active duty military (either in the United States or abroad), as well as persons in institutions (for example, nursing homes and correctional facilities), are not included.

The Pew Hispanic Center was founded in 2001 with support from The Pew Charitable Trusts. The Center conducts non-partisan research that aims at improving understanding of the Hispanic population. It is a project of the Pew Research Center.

The findings reported here are based on the most extensive study ever conducted of English and Spanish language network and local news coverage over the course of a campaign. Specifically, the national network findings are based on the nightly broadcasts aired on ABC, CBS, NBC, Telemundo and Univision during the 29-day period from October 4 to November 1, 2004. The local news findings are based on an analysis of all evening news broadcasts aired between 5:00 p.m. and 11:30 p.m. by the local affiliates of ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC, Telemundo and Univision in three markets (Los Angeles, New York and Miami) during the same time period. The Spanish-language local stations were KMEX (Univision) and KVEA (Telemundo) in Los Angeles; WLTV (Univision) and WSCV (Telemundo) in Miami; and WXTV (Univision) and WNJU (Telemundo) in New York. The study examined a total of 424 network news election stories and 2,724 local news election stories.

Network News

How did the two Spanish-language networks compare? Univision, the primary Spanish-language network, is more like an English-language network in the quantity and quality of its election coverage; it provided more and better coverage than its competitor, Telemundo.

How much election coverage aired on English- and Spanish-language networks? English-language networks devoted somewhat more of their nightly news to campaigns and elections than Spanish-language networks. A typical half-hour of network news on ABC, CBS and NBC averaged eight minutes of election coverage. A typical Univision broadcast contained six-and-one-half minutes of election coverage, while a typical Telemundo half-hour aired just four minutes. The amount provided by each English-language network was fairly similar: NBC ran 35 percent of all English-language network stories; ABC had 34 percent; CBS had 31 percent. But Univision provided over twice as much election coverage as Telemundo: sixty-eight percent of Spanish-language stories aired on Univision and 32 percent on Telemundo.

How much network election coverage focused on campaign issues or critiqued candidate advertising? Almost half of the election stories on NBC (48 percent) and CBS (47 percent) focused on issues. By contrast, only about 30 percent of the stories on ABC and Univision focused on issues, and 19 percent of the Telemundo stories focused on issues. Just one percent of the stories on English-language networks were adwatches; no adwatch stories were found on Spanish-language networks.

How much network election coverage mentioned Latino issues? Only five campaign stories (amounting to two percent of all English-language network stories) mentioned Latino issues, and four of them were on NBC (whose parent company, GE, also owns Telemundo). By contrast, 45 percent of the Univision network stories, and 27 percent of Telemundo stories, mentioned Latino issues.

How did English- and Spanish-language networks compare in coverage of the Iraq War and other world affairs news? A typical Univision broadcast contained about 45 seconds of Iraq coverage and slightly more than eight minutes of other world affairs news. On Telemundo, a viewer would have seen just under 45 seconds of Iraq War coverage, and six-and-one-half minutes of other world affairs coverage. By contrast, a viewer of a typical English-language network broadcast would have seen three minutes of Iraq War coverage and slightly less than one-and-one-half minutes of other world affairs news.

Local News

Did the differences between Univision and Telemundo at the network level appear at the local level? No. In number of campaign stories, length of stories, discussion of Latino issues, and balance of strategy/horserace stories vs. issue stories, there were virtually no differences between affiliates of the two networks.

How much election coverage aired on English- and Spanish-language local news? English-language stations averaged more campaign stories and longer campaign stories with more candidate soundbites than Spanish-language stations.

How much local stations’ campaign coverage was devoted to local races? The presidential race dominated coverage on both Spanish- and English-language networks. Roughly two-thirds of all election coverage – 64 percent of the English-language campaign stories and 67 percent of the Spanish-language campaign stories – focused on the presidential race. Only six percent of the English-language campaign stories, and just three percent of the campaign stories on the Spanish-language stations, focused on local races.

How much local election coverage focused on campaign issues or critiqued candidate advertising? Forty-five percent of the English-language campaign stories and 53 percent of the Spanish-language stories focused on strategy or the horserace. Local stations in both languages were diligent at providing viewers with information about where to vote and about potential problems with the voting process. Twenty-one percent of all stories focused on these types of voting issues.

How much local election coverage mentioned Latino issues? Just three percent of all English-language stories mentioned Latino issues, compared to 30 percent on Spanish-language affiliates.

How did English- and Spanish-language affiliates compare in coverage of world affairs and Iraq? Similar to the mix at the network level, local Spanish-language stations gave significantly more coverage to world affairs coverage than local English-language stations. A typical Spanish-language local broadcast devoted one minute 44 seconds to world affairs, while a typical English-language broadcast devoted just 17 seconds to world affairs. The Iraq War received surprisingly little coverage on local news in either language. A typical Spanish-language local broadcast devoted 10 seconds to the Iraq War, while a typical English-language local broadcast contained just 25 seconds of Iraq War coverage.

Project Overview & Research Methodology

This report is released by the Lear Center Local News Archive (localnewsarchive.org), a collaboration between the USC Annenberg School for Communication’s Norman Lear Center and the NewsLab of the Department of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. The principal investigators are Martin

Kaplan, associate dean of the USC Annenberg School and director of The Norman Lear Center; Ken Goldstein, professor of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and Matthew Hale, assistant professor in the Center for Public Service at Seton Hall University. The project is funded by a grant from The Pew Hispanic Center, which is directed by Roberto Suro.

In the four weeks preceding Election Day 2004 (October 4th to November 1st), project staff captured the evening network news broadcast on ABC, CBS, NBC, Telemundo and Univision. During the same time period, local news on the ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC, Telemundo and Univision affiliates in three markets – New York, Los Angeles and Miami – was also captured. (In addition, English-language local news in eight more markets was captured for a parallel study funded by the Joyce Foundation, with additional support from the Carnegie Corporation; see localnewsarchive.org.)

The news programming was captured through a sophisticated market-based media server technology. Each day, digitally-recorded video was sent over the Internet to the NewsLab servers overnight. The NewsLab at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (www.polisci.wisc.edu/newslab) is a unique state-of-the art facility that has the infrastructure, technical skill, and supervisory capability to capture, clip, code, analyze and archive any media in any market – domestic or international – in real time. Video can be gathered, digitized, sorted and archived automatically by the InfoSite system, a media analysis product of CommIT Technology Solutions of Madison, Wisconsin (www.commitonline.com). This system includes a variety of automatic validation checks to ensure superior coding reliability and logical consistency. With over a terabyte of storage, the NewsLab servers manage data, encode and archive video, and serve content through one of many custom media analysis tools, both internally, and to the rest of the world via the Internet. The Newslab director is Erika Franklin Fowler. The University of Wisconsin Advertising Project (www.polisci.wisc.edu/tvadvertising) is also housed in the NewsLab facility, where it tracks real time political advertising flows across the nation.

The NewsLab system captured 100 percent of all network broadcasts and 97 percent of all the targeted local broadcasts, a notably high rate. Of the 18 stations analyzed for this study, only one had a capture rate below 90 percent. This station was the Fox affiliate in Los Angeles, which had a capture rate of 77 percent. A full listing of each individual station capture rate can be found in Appendix A.

The majority of the report contains overall percentages and averages which, given the high capture rate, are unlikely to be significantly affected by small amounts of missing data. There is no reason to suspect that there are systematic differences between the data reported here and the small amount of missing data. Even so, the findings in this report are based only on the broadcasts and campaign news stories actually watched and analyzed by project staff. Television news broadcasts are often pre-empted or replaced by late running sporting events, particularly on weekends. As a result, the number of broadcasts for each station is based on broadcasts where the regular news programs actually aired, not the number of broadcasts a station would have aired without being pre-empted or replaced.

All Spanish-language coding was conducted by bi-lingual coders who underwent the same intensive training process as English-language coders.

Candidates, political organizations and the news media are paying greater attention to Latino voters in 2004 than in any previous election year. This reflects the closeness of many political races, the rapid growth of the Hispanic population as well as other factors. Aside from being a relatively new player on the political scene, the Latino electorate is a complex mix of native-born U.S. citizens and immigrants who have become citizens by naturalization, of individuals who trace their ancestry to different countries of origin and of people who enjoy different levels of economic well-being. In order to better understand how the Hispanic population, both voters and non-voters, see the political choices facing the nation this year, the Pew Hispanic Center and the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation collaborated on an extensive survey of adult Latinos. This is the third such collaboration. The first National Survey of Latinos in 2002 also examined political views as well as a range of attitudes regarding ethnic identity and the assimilation process. The second, conducted in 2003, focused on education.

The 2004 National Survey of Latinos: Politics and Civic Participation was conducted by telephone from April 21, 2004 to June 9, 2004 among a nationally representative sample of 2,288 Latino respondents, including 1,166 registered voters. The first section of this report focuses on the views of Latino registered voters on a range of issues and concerns that are subject of debate in the current political campaign. The next section explores some of the differences in characteristics, attitudes and civic participation among Latino registered voters, those who are eligible to vote but have not registered and the large share of Latinos who are not U.S. citizens. The final section examines Hispanic views on a question that has risen to prominence each time the United States has experienced a substantial influx of immigrants: Is there a single American culture?

The rapid growth of the Latino population has been a subject of intense public attention since the 2000 Census reported a 58% increase over the 1990 total and later Census Bureau estimates concluded that Hispanics had surpassed African Americans in number. However, because of the distinctive factors generating this growth— immigration and high birth rates—increases in raw population do not automatically produce increases in the number of voters.

In 2000, for example, the Hispanic and African-American populations were of roughly similar size, about 35 million people. However, there were 23 million African American eligible voters compared to 13 million Latinos. The major cause of the difference was the large number of adult Latinos who are non-citizen immigrants. While citizens accounted for 95% of the African American voting-age population, they made up only 60% of the Latino population at least 18 years old.¹

Based on the most recent population data available, in March 2003 the Hispanic population totaled 39.4 million people, and 40% of them, 15.7 million people, were eligible voters.² In contrast, 73% of the total non-Hispanic population was eligible.

Nonetheless, the Hispanic electorate is growing much faster than the non- Hispanic electorate. Between the 2000 vote and the election this November, the number of eligible Latino voters will have increased by about 20% to about 16 million people. The rate of increase is about six times faster than for the non-Hispanic population.

The Youth Vote

The Hispanic population on the whole is younger than the rest of the U.S. population. Among Latinos, for example, 34% of the population is less than 18 years old compared to 23% of the non-Hispanic white population. Moreover, this segment of the Latino population is growing much faster than in the population overall. As a result, young, native-born Latinos are a disproportionately large source of growth in the youth electorate and they are by far the largest source of growth in the Latino electorate.

Every year since the 2000 elections an average of 425,000 native-born Latinos has turned 18 years old and become eligible to vote. While Latinos make up 8% of eligible voters, they represent 12% of the electorate that is between 18 and 24 years old. Given their fast rate of growth, Latinos will account for 68% of the increase in this segment of the electorate between the 2000 and 2004 elections.

Similarly, these young voters represent the lion’s share of growth in the Latino electorate. Nearly eight out of every ten (78%) new Latino eligible voters since the last presidential election is a native-born U.S. citizen who has become old enough to vote as opposed to an immigrant who has become a citizen through naturalization.

Like others their age, Latino young adults are less likely to vote than older people. Among Latino U.S. citizens aged 18 to 29 years old 60% say they are registered to vote compared to 79% of Hispanic U.S. citizens who are at least 55 year old, according to the 2004 National Survey of Latinos.³ Among Latino registered voters, only 66% of the young adults say they have ever voted versus more than 90% in every other age group.

Young adult Latino registered voters also take distinctive views on some issues. For example, in the survey 18 to 29 years olds were the only age group in which a majority (55%) said they opposed a constitutional amendment that would, in effect, ban same-sex marriages. In contrast, 39% of Latino registered voters 55 years old or more opposed the amendment. They are also more skeptical on the conduct of the war in Iraq with 68% saying President George W. Bush does not have a clear plan to bring the conflict to a successful conclusion compared to 55% of those at least 55 years old.

Hispanics and the Electoral College

Although it has been dispersing to new settlement areas, the Hispanic population remains concentrated in a few states. Several of those states were decided by wide margins in the last presidential election and do not appear to be battlegrounds in the current campaign. Texas, California and New York are all generally considered uncontested states in the presidential race, and 58% of all Latino eligible voters live in those three states alone.

Among the 18 states generally considered battlegrounds in the presidential election because they were decided by a margin of less than 7% of the popular vote in 2000, Latinos comprise at least 10% of the eligible voters in Florida, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona. The Hispanic electorate has distinctly different characteristics in each of those states and different patterns of growth since 2000.

• Florida: Hispanics make up 14% of the eligible voters, and they are unusual because so many are naturalized citizens (44% of Latino eligible voters in Florida compared to 24% nationally). Nonetheless, the fastest growth has been among native born Latinos who account for 83% of the new eligible Latino voters in Florida.
• New Mexico: Latinos are 40% of the eligible voters, a greater share by far than in any other state. These voters are overwhelmingly native-born citizens, 93%.
• Nevada: Latinos account for 13% of the eligible voters but their numbers are growing very fast. Since the last presidential election, the number of eligible Latinos in Nevada has increased by about 50%, and Latinos account for about half of all the increase in the Nevada electorate. About two-thirds of the Latino eligible voters in Nevada are native born.
• Arizona: Some 16% of eligible voters in Arizona are Hispanics, and 80% are native-born citizens.